਀㰀倀㸀䄀猀 椀渀瘀攀猀琀漀爀猀 瀀漀渀搀攀爀 愀 爀攀ⴀ爀甀渀 漀昀 琀栀攀 䜀䘀䌀Ⰰ 刀攀猀攀爀瘀攀 䈀愀渀欀 漀昀昀椀挀椀愀氀猀 眀攀爀攀 氀愀猀琀 眀攀攀欀 眀愀爀渀攀搀 漀昀 琀栀攀 瀀漀琀攀渀琀椀愀氀 昀漀爀 愀渀漀琀栀攀爀 䄀䘀䌀 ⴀ 䄀猀椀愀渀 昀椀渀愀渀挀椀愀氀 挀爀椀猀椀猀⸀㰀⼀倀㸀

Distinguished Peking University economists, Yiping Huang and Bijun Wang, presented a paper at the bank's annual closed-door conference that assessed Asia's economic performance over the past decade and looked ahead to the prospects for the next 10 years.

਀㰀倀㸀吀栀攀 最漀漀搀 渀攀眀猀 椀猀 琀栀攀礀 攀砀瀀攀挀琀 䄀猀椀愀✀猀 攀挀漀渀漀洀椀挀 愀猀挀攀渀搀愀渀挀礀 琀漀 挀漀渀琀椀渀甀攀⸀ 䈀甀琀 琀栀攀礀 眀愀爀渀攀搀 琀栀攀 渀攀砀琀 ㄀  礀攀愀爀猀 漀爀 猀漀 挀漀甀氀搀 戀攀 戀甀洀瀀椀攀爀 琀栀愀渀 琀栀攀 瀀愀猀琀 ㄀ ⸀㰀⼀倀㸀

"It is quite possible that Asia or China will experience a new financial crisis in the coming decade or two," their paper concluded.

਀㰀倀㸀吀栀攀 䄀䘀䌀 椀渀 ㄀㤀㤀㜀ⴀ㤀㠀 搀攀瘀愀猀琀愀琀攀搀 洀愀渀礀 攀挀漀渀漀洀椀攀猀⸀ 䘀椀渀愀渀挀椀愀氀 洀愀爀欀攀琀猀 眀攀渀琀 椀渀琀漀 昀爀攀攀 昀愀氀氀 愀猀 椀渀瘀攀猀琀漀爀猀 昀氀攀搀 琀栀攀 爀攀最椀漀渀⸀ 䌀甀爀爀攀渀挀椀攀猀 眀攀爀攀 猀栀愀爀瀀氀礀 搀攀瘀愀氀甀攀搀 愀渀搀 最爀漀眀琀栀 挀漀氀氀愀瀀猀攀搀⸀㰀⼀倀㸀

The crisis didn't end Asia's economic "miracle", thanks mainly to the emergence of China and India which both avoided serious damage. Those two Asian giants were not even grouped with the ''high performing Asian economies'' featured in a landmark 1993 World Bank report entitled The East Asian Miracle.

਀㰀倀㸀䈀甀琀 琀栀攀 猀栀愀搀漀眀 漀昀 琀栀攀 䄀䘀䌀 猀琀椀氀氀 栀愀渀最猀 漀瘀攀爀 琀栀攀 爀攀最椀漀渀⸀ 吀漀搀愀礀 椀渀瘀攀猀琀洀攀渀琀 爀愀琀攀猀 椀渀 猀漀甀琀栀ⴀ攀愀猀琀 䄀猀椀愀 愀爀攀 猀琀椀氀氀 ㄀  瀀攀爀挀攀渀琀愀最攀 瀀漀椀渀琀猀 氀漀眀攀爀Ⰰ 漀渀 愀瘀攀爀愀最攀Ⰰ 琀栀愀渀 瀀爀攀ⴀ䄀䘀䌀 氀攀瘀攀氀猀⸀㰀⼀倀㸀

Huang and Wang point out that the AFC influenced regional economic developments in the 2000s that continue to have big implications.

਀㰀倀㸀䴀愀礀戀攀 琀栀攀 洀漀猀琀 猀椀最渀椀昀椀挀愀渀琀 愀爀攀 琀栀攀 攀洀攀爀最攀渀挀攀 漀昀 氀愀爀最攀 挀甀爀爀攀渀琀 愀挀挀漀甀渀琀 猀甀爀瀀氀甀猀攀猀Ⰰ 琀栀攀 愀挀挀甀洀甀氀愀琀椀漀渀 漀昀 ∀最椀愀渀琀∀ 昀漀爀攀椀最渀 攀砀挀栀愀渀最攀 爀攀猀攀爀瘀攀猀 愀渀搀 琀栀攀 攀砀瀀漀爀琀 漀昀 挀愀瀀椀琀愀氀 昀爀漀洀 琀栀攀 爀攀最椀漀渀⸀ 吀栀攀 䄀䘀䌀 眀愀猀 洀愀爀欀攀搀 戀礀 䄀猀椀愀渀 最漀瘀攀爀渀洀攀渀琀猀 爀攀猀瀀漀渀搀椀渀最 琀漀 琀栀攀 洀愀猀猀 攀砀漀搀甀猀 漀昀 昀漀爀攀椀最渀 挀愀瀀椀琀愀氀 搀甀爀椀渀最 琀栀攀 挀爀椀猀椀猀 戀礀 洀愀欀椀渀最 猀瀀攀挀椀愀氀 攀昀昀漀爀琀猀 琀漀 瀀爀漀洀漀琀攀 挀甀爀爀攀渀琀 愀挀挀漀甀渀琀 猀甀爀瀀氀甀猀攀猀 愀渀搀 琀栀攀 愀挀挀甀洀甀氀愀琀椀漀渀 漀昀 昀漀爀攀椀最渀 攀砀挀栀愀渀最攀 爀攀猀攀爀瘀攀猀⸀ 䈀攀昀漀爀攀 琀栀攀 䄀䘀䌀 洀漀猀琀 䄀猀椀愀渀 攀挀漀渀漀洀椀攀猀 眀攀爀攀 挀愀瀀椀琀愀氀 椀洀瀀漀爀琀攀爀猀 戀甀琀 渀漀眀 琀栀攀礀 愀爀攀 栀甀最攀 挀愀瀀椀琀愀氀 攀砀瀀漀爀琀攀爀猀⸀ 䄀猀椀愀✀猀 昀漀爀攀椀最渀 爀攀猀攀爀瘀攀猀 琀漀琀愀氀氀攀搀 ␀唀匀㠀㜀㠀 戀椀氀氀椀漀渀 ⠀␀㠀㐀㌀⸀㔀 戀椀氀氀椀漀渀⤀ 戀攀昀漀爀攀 琀栀攀 䄀䘀䌀 戀甀琀 爀攀愀挀栀攀搀 ␀唀匀㘀⸀㈀ 琀爀椀氀氀椀漀渀 愀昀琀攀爀 琀栀攀 䜀䘀䌀⸀㰀⼀倀㸀

As a result, Asian savings are being deployed to finance the budget deficits in the North Atlantic. That's costly for Asian economies, which need capital to promote their own development, and it's contributing to dangerous global imbalances.

਀㰀倀㸀䄀渀漀琀栀攀爀 猀瀀椀渀ⴀ漀昀昀 昀爀漀洀 琀栀攀 䄀䘀䌀 眀愀猀 愀渀 愀琀琀攀洀瀀琀 琀漀 昀漀爀最攀 最爀攀愀琀攀爀 琀爀愀搀攀Ⰰ 昀椀渀愀渀挀椀愀氀 愀渀搀 攀挀漀渀漀洀椀挀 挀漀漀瀀攀爀愀琀椀漀渀 愀挀爀漀猀猀 琀栀攀 䄀猀椀愀⸀ 䤀渀搀椀瘀椀搀甀愀氀 挀漀甀渀琀爀椀攀猀 眀攀爀攀 渀漀琀 猀攀攀渀 愀猀 猀琀爀漀渀最 攀渀漀甀最栀 琀漀 眀椀琀栀猀琀愀渀搀 琀栀攀 挀爀椀猀椀猀 愀氀漀渀攀⸀ 䠀漀眀攀瘀攀爀Ⰰ 猀甀挀挀攀猀猀 栀愀猀 戀攀攀渀 氀椀洀椀琀攀搀⸀㰀⼀倀㸀

Huang and Wang say the GFC, which hit a decade after the AFC, showed that Asian economies, including China, had made "limited progresses" in limiting financial and macro-economic risks.

਀㰀倀㸀∀䌀栀椀渀攀猀攀 瀀漀氀椀挀礀洀愀欀攀爀猀 甀猀攀搀 昀椀猀挀愀氀 愀渀搀 洀漀渀攀琀愀爀礀 瀀漀氀椀挀椀攀猀 琀漀 戀漀漀猀琀 攀挀漀渀漀洀椀挀 最爀漀眀琀栀 搀甀爀椀渀最 琀栀攀 䜀䘀䌀Ⰰ∀ 琀栀攀礀 猀愀椀搀⸀ ∀䈀甀琀 琀栀攀猀攀 瀀漀氀椀挀椀攀猀 栀愀瘀攀 戀愀挀欀昀椀爀攀搀 椀渀 琀攀爀洀猀 漀昀 栀椀最栀 椀渀昀氀愀琀椀漀渀Ⰰ 栀椀最栀 氀漀挀愀氀 最漀瘀攀爀渀洀攀渀琀 搀攀戀琀猀 愀渀搀 瀀漀猀猀椀戀氀礀 氀愀爀最攀 渀漀渀ⴀ瀀攀爀昀漀爀洀椀渀最 氀漀愀渀猀⸀ 䤀琀 椀猀 愀氀洀漀猀琀 椀洀瀀漀猀猀椀戀氀攀 昀漀爀 琀栀攀 䌀栀椀渀攀猀攀 最漀瘀攀爀渀洀攀渀琀 琀漀 爀攀瀀攀愀琀 眀栀愀琀 椀琀 搀椀搀 搀甀爀椀渀最 琀栀攀 䜀䘀䌀⸀∀㰀⼀倀㸀

And now many Asian countries are at an important "juncture" in their economic development and in need of major structural reforms. Some of these relate to responses to the AFC.

਀㰀倀㸀䤀洀戀愀氀愀渀挀攀猀 愀渀搀 搀椀猀琀漀爀琀椀漀渀猀 愀爀攀 戀甀椀氀搀椀渀最 甀瀀 椀渀 琀栀攀 䌀栀椀渀攀猀攀 攀挀漀渀漀洀礀⸀ 䌀栀椀渀攀猀攀 愀甀琀栀漀爀椀琀椀攀猀 愀爀攀 爀攀猀瀀漀渀搀椀渀最 戀甀琀 琀栀攀 爀攀戀愀氀愀渀挀椀渀最 瀀爀漀挀攀猀猀 挀漀甀氀搀 戀攀 搀攀猀琀愀戀椀氀椀猀椀渀最⸀㰀⼀倀㸀

While India is growing rapidly, it faces the challenge of providing employment for an enormous number of unskilled workers. Meanwhile, some south-east Asian economies must overcome the "middle-income trap" by upgrading their industrial structures, fostering innovation and reducing inequality.

਀㰀倀㸀䠀甀愀渀最 愀渀搀 圀愀渀最 眀愀爀渀 漀昀 ∀甀渀挀攀爀琀愀椀渀琀椀攀猀∀ 猀甀爀爀漀甀渀搀椀渀最 琀栀攀 最爀漀眀琀栀 瀀爀漀猀瀀攀挀琀猀 漀昀 䌀栀椀渀愀Ⰰ 䤀渀搀椀愀 愀渀搀 猀漀甀琀栀ⴀ攀愀猀琀 䄀猀椀愀⸀ 䜀椀瘀攀渀 琀栀攀 猀琀爀甀挀琀甀爀愀氀 挀栀愀氀氀攀渀最攀猀 琀栀攀礀 猀愀礀 ∀椀琀 洀椀最栀琀 戀攀 搀椀昀昀椀挀甀氀琀 琀漀 挀漀洀瀀氀攀琀攀氀礀 愀瘀漀椀搀 愀 挀爀椀猀椀猀 椀渀 琀栀攀 挀漀洀椀渀最 搀攀挀愀搀攀Ⰰ 眀栀椀挀栀 挀漀甀氀搀 猀琀愀爀琀 漀昀昀 琀栀攀 眀漀爀氀搀✀猀 渀攀砀琀 爀攀挀攀猀猀椀漀渀⸀∀㰀⼀倀㸀

Astute economic management helped Australia survive the AFC relatively unscathed. But since 1997 Australia's fortunes have become tightly bound to Asia. The next AFC will be much more of a challenge.