Population 2 Billion?
  zhiran
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Population 2 Billion?

From www dot china-briefing dot com

Is China’s Population Really 1.3 Billion?

Sept. 1 - The population figure promoted for China that is accepted by the international community and acknowledged by Beijing is 1.3 billion.

This figure has been promoted for some years now. In assessing the reliability of this statistic, we need to look at other factors. The only way Beijing can calculate for this figure accurately is by undertaking a national population census. The last one was undertaken was in 2000/2001. This census was abandoned halfway through as the census takers could not obtain accurate responses, mainly because of distrust as to the actual purpose of the poll.

China’s population therefore continues to be based on the last complete census carried out in the country, which was 19 years ago in 1988/89. The 1.3 billion figure then, as far as we can ascertain, dates back from this census.

We will take an educated guess as to the likely trend that has happened since then. Taking the annual average global population growth figure of about 2.2 to 2.3 percent over a period of 19 years, this may add about 200-300 million Chinese. However, we are unsure how the annual death rate – statistics of which seem to not be available– would affect this estimation. The population growth for countries like Kenya and Philippines is about 4.3 percent, and for most developed countries in Europe about 1.4 percent.

Since 1976, China has adopted a one child policy. Traditionally, the Chinese rural population relies on parents supported by many children to ensure that the family can survive and prosper. Although in recent years, this one child policy has been relaxed in certain areas, it is still in force by legislation in China. This means that parents in rural areas who have more than one child can only legally register the first one. This creates a vast number of unregistered children, who have no legal registration or what is known as a hukou and cannot receive state benefits.

The majority of the illegal migrant population in China’s major cities are known to be unregistered, hence the mobile phone numbers spray painted around cities by dubious agencies and individuals that offer fake documentation to illegal migrants.Although no actual statistics exist, we could surmise a guess and estimate that unregistered post-1976 children amount to as much as 200 - 300 million people.

Therefore if you take the population figure of 1.3 billion, add in the growth since the last full census, plus the possible additional figures for unregistered children - then it could be possible that the population for China today could be anything between 1.8 to 2 billion people.

We would like to emphasize that these figures are from various personal observations and have not been formally evaluated. We accept that some of the factors above may be inaccurate. However, the main point here is that nobody, least of all the Chinese government, knows what the real population of China is today which is most probably higher than the published figure of 1.3 billion.
2008-10-24 10:45 PM #1
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  seneca (seneca)
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If the above article has more basis in facts than official demographic stats then just about every thing about China has to be revised: Population density, GDP, even the numbers of 'rich' versus 'poor'. The latter might be numbering close to 100 million...

I don't know what is true but I do care. I distinctly remember receiving official visitors checking out my household for that year's census; the wife I was married to happened to be a notorious cheat who had managed to illegally change her surname, and nobody cared even when I mentioned this to authorities.

What happens if the owner of a hukou from place A lives in place B (without local hukou) and place A has no records about that person's whereabouts??She can thus breed on in two places (under certain circumstances her hukou-less status won'tlead to any fine).

In certain parts of rural China registering a newborn is not without its own fallacity. Some chilren get born without them being issued a birth certificate. It may be up to them to prove their ancestry via their blood line - in order to get a passport, for example.

And last year residents at Bozhou in Guangxi revolted against authorities who had suddenly been ordered to fine their errant citizenry for raising more than one child per household - a problem the Bozhou government had ignored for far too long...
2008-10-25 03:16 PM #2
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  satsu_jin
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QUOTE:
Originally posted by zhiran at 2008-10-24 23:45
This article is def. inaccurate. Before I look deeper into it let's just get one fact straight. Even if the 2000 census is not taken into consideration, the 1982 and 1989 censuses stood at 1.003 and 1.134 billion people respectively and not as claimed at 1.3 billion in 1989.
This is already a gap of approx. 170 million people.
2008-10-25 04:12 PM #3
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  buddy35
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This explains why seneca hates women:

QUOTE:
Originally posted by seneca at 2008-10-25 15:16
the wife I was married to happened to be a notorious cheat
Now all his women hating posts from the past finally make sense!

I pity you, seneca!
2008-10-25 09:45 PM #4
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  mengzhi (mengzhi)
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With Chinese Characteristics .

Dear Zhiran,

Why do you care about how many Chinese there are in this world ? 1.3 billion or 3 billion , the Chinese are self sufficient in food , strong in defense , has a stable and benign hard working environment . You can cook whatever figures you like ; it makes no difference to us . We are in control and those who choose to wish us ill are destined for disappointments . It is sad that there are people out there who have nothing else worthwhile to do with their time.
2008-10-26 11:04 AM #5
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  greendragon
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Reply #5 mengzhi's post

roughly accurate population numbers is needed to ensure proper resources availability.

but looking at the large grain output, increasing  meat consumption, one wonders about the real size of China's population.
I can only eat about 80kg of rice a year, possibly another 100kg of wheat, barley, in beer, patotoes, yam, ......


so, one can only wonder?


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2008-10-26 12:19 PM #6
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  mengzhi (mengzhi)
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The low life .

Dragon,

Zhiran has no interest in the actual or imaginary population of the Chinese people . He is only interested in throwing mud on the ability , sincerity or accuracy of all Chinese endeavors . Don't take him seriously . I come in only to show what a low life he is .
2008-10-26 04:03 PM #7
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  zhiran
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It is extremely important to know, to a fairly accurate number, the population in the country.

As for my purposes, there is nothing sinister about them. I only thought it would make a good topic for discussion. Mengzhi, who is not stupid and knows there are very good reasons for knowing an accurate population figure. is now only happy when he is criticizing others  - his days of seriously debating in these forums seem well and truly over.

As to the purported figure given in the theory above, sure the article even states that this figure is unlikely to be accurate but it does point out some very good and, quite possibly, valid reasons why the generally accepted figure of 1.35Bn is an underestimation of the true figure.
2008-10-26 04:58 PM #9
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  zhiran
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Malaysian wih Australian and Chinese Characteristics



QUOTE:
Originally posted by mengzhi at 2008-10-26 11:04
Dear Zhiran,

...the Chinese are self sufficient in food...
Are you quite sure of that? Current figures might suggest otherwise...

QUOTE:
Originally posted by mengzhi at 2008-10-26 11:04
we are in control...
I wasn't aware that China was controlled by Malaysians (in Australia). Are you even a Chinese citizen?

[ Last edited by zhiran at 2008-10-26 05:03 PM ]
2008-10-26 05:02 PM #10
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  mengzhi (mengzhi)
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Make up of low life .

I am here to state the bleeding obvious . There is a handful of mischief makers here who have NO desire to learn about China or engage the Chinese . They form the baying and whinging sounds in the background against all Chinese achievements . Their topics are increasingly stupid and irrelevant , but hey , they are allowed to pull themselves if they want .

China is more than self sufficient in food , energy and security . They right now have the only major economy which is still growing at a " slowed down " rate of 9.9% this last quarter . They do not have to find billions of dollars to " bail " themselves out of the mother of all holes they have been digging for themselves ,

My personal details are too boring zhiran but my points are inconvenient to the likes of you huh ?
2008-10-26 05:26 PM #11
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  zhiran
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QUOTE:
Originally posted by mengzhi at 2008-10-26 17:26
China is more than self sufficient in food , energy  ...
Energy too?

Are you  REALLY sure about that?

If you want to throw insults around you should at least do so based on facts.

Otherwise you will look stupid - and as I said in my earlier post, you are not. But clearly you are trying your best to appear so.

Why do you bother with all this? Why don't you just post 'DITTO' and be done with it. You have contributed NOTHING of note on this forum for a long time, other than to say 'China is the best' and slap done anyone who dares to discuss issues for the unholy crime of not being Chinese.
2008-10-26 05:54 PM #12
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  billy1989
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QUOTE:
Originally posted by mengzhi at 2008-10-26 11:04
Dear Zhiran,

Why do you care about how many Chinese there are in this world ? 1.3 billion or 3 billion , the Chinese are self sufficient in food , strong in defense , has a stable and benign har ...
why does it matter if he want to know how many chinese there are in the world thats up to him. He did not put it
negatively. I don't mind knowing if there are more today if there are then that is that however it shows that china is still doing well even though its population may be even larger.
2009-9-4 08:00 PM #13
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  billy1989
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ok I just read the rest and he is making digs at china. Hey zhrin dont worry if china population is larger they are
doing fine and its only going to get better with time