਀㰀䠀吀䴀䰀㸀㰀䠀䔀䄀䐀㸀 ਀㰀䴀䔀吀䄀 渀愀洀攀㴀䜀䔀一䔀刀䄀吀伀刀 挀漀渀琀攀渀琀㴀∀䴀匀䠀吀䴀䰀 㠀⸀  ⸀㘀  ㄀⸀㄀㤀 ㄀㤀∀㸀㰀⼀䠀䔀䄀䐀㸀 CHINA AND THE STATUS ਀儀唀伀㰀⼀䘀伀一吀㸀㰀⼀匀吀刀伀一䜀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䘀伀一吀 猀椀稀攀㴀㌀㸀㰀匀吀刀伀一䜀㸀䌀栀椀渀愀 戀愀渀欀猀 漀渀 最椀瘀椀渀最 瀀攀愀挀攀 愀  chance
By Francesco Sisci

BEIJING - China's latest ਀愀琀琀攀洀瀀琀 琀漀 樀甀猀琀椀昀礀 琀漀 琀栀攀 眀漀爀氀搀 椀琀猀 洀椀氀椀琀愀爀礀 愀最最爀愀渀搀椀稀攀洀攀渀琀Ⰰ 椀琀猀 圀栀椀琀攀 瀀愀瀀攀爀 漀渀  the People's Liberation Army, was long on new policies and tasks of the army, ਀戀甀琀 昀愀椀氀攀搀 琀漀 攀砀瀀氀愀椀渀 栀漀眀 琀栀攀 最爀漀眀椀渀最 愀洀漀甀渀琀 漀昀 洀漀渀攀礀 戀甀搀最攀琀攀搀 昀漀爀 琀栀攀 洀椀氀椀琀愀爀礀  will be spent. [1]

Nor did the March 31 paper outline a grand strategy ਀昀漀爀 䌀栀椀渀愀⸀ 吀栀椀猀 琀愀猀欀 戀攀昀攀氀氀 䌀栀椀渀愀✀猀 琀漀瀀 琀栀攀漀爀攀琀椀挀椀愀渀Ⰰ 娀栀攀渀最 䈀椀樀椀愀渀Ⰰ 眀栀漀  the 
same ਀搀愀礀 瀀甀戀氀椀猀栀攀搀 漀渀 琀栀攀 䤀琀愀氀椀愀渀 搀愀椀氀礀 䤀氀 猀漀氀攀 ㈀㐀漀爀攀 琀栀攀 氀愀琀攀猀琀 漀昀昀椀挀椀愀氀 瘀攀爀猀椀漀渀 漀昀  the ideas that shape the nation's foreign policy doctrine. [2] Zheng, already ਀昀愀琀栀攀爀 漀昀 琀栀攀 琀栀攀漀爀礀 漀昀 䌀栀椀渀愀✀猀 瀀攀愀挀攀昀甀氀 搀攀瘀攀氀漀瀀洀攀渀琀Ⰰ 瀀爀漀瀀漀猀攀搀 戀甀椀氀搀椀渀最 挀漀洀洀漀渀  interests between China and the world.

Common interests, a network of ਀攀挀漀渀漀洀椀挀 愀渀搀 猀琀爀愀琀攀最椀挀 椀渀琀攀爀搀攀瀀攀渀搀攀渀挀攀Ⰰ 眀漀甀氀搀 搀攀 昀愀挀琀漀 挀爀攀愀琀攀 甀渀椀瘀攀爀猀愀氀 最爀漀甀渀搀猀  to preserve global peace, Zheng wrote. He went on to say that an aggressive ਀猀琀愀渀挀攀 漀爀 猀琀愀爀琀椀渀最 愀 眀愀爀 眀漀甀氀搀 戀攀 愀最愀椀渀猀琀 䌀栀椀渀愀✀猀 漀眀渀 猀琀爀愀琀攀最椀挀 愀渀搀 攀挀漀渀漀洀椀挀  interests, and those shared by other countries. Therefore, China would have an ਀椀渀琀攀爀攀猀琀 椀渀 栀攀氀瀀椀渀最 漀琀栀攀爀 挀漀甀渀琀爀椀攀猀 琀漀 戀攀挀漀洀攀 猀愀昀攀爀 愀渀搀 戀攀琀琀攀爀 漀昀昀Ⰰ 猀漀 琀栀愀琀 琀栀攀礀  would have an interest in preserving peace and thriving global businesses. ਀㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀䌀栀椀渀愀 椀猀 挀漀渀挀攀爀渀攀搀 愀戀漀甀琀 眀漀爀氀搀 瀀攀爀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀猀 漀渀 琀栀攀 䌀栀椀渀愀 琀栀爀攀愀琀 漀爀  collapse. The intentions are not simply of reaching noble understanding, but ਀瀀攀爀琀愀椀渀 琀漀 䌀栀椀渀愀✀猀 漀眀渀 渀攀挀攀猀猀椀琀椀攀猀⸀ 吀漀 猀攀攀 栀漀眀 琀栀愀琀 搀礀渀愀洀椀挀 眀漀爀欀猀Ⰰ 栀漀眀攀瘀攀爀Ⰰ 眀攀  have to take a long detour into the objective development of the ideas of threat ਀愀渀搀 挀漀氀氀愀瀀猀攀⸀ 㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀㸀䘀爀漀洀 䴀愀漀椀猀琀 愀最最爀攀猀猀椀漀渀 琀漀 愀 瀀攀愀挀攀昀甀氀 爀椀猀攀㰀⼀䈀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀䴀愀漀  Zedong's legacy in international politics was very difficult to cope with after ਀栀椀猀 搀攀洀椀猀攀 椀渀 ㄀㤀㜀㘀 愀渀搀 䐀攀渀最✀猀 愀爀爀椀瘀愀氀 琀漀 瀀漀眀攀爀 椀渀 ㄀㤀㜀㠀⸀ 倀攀爀栀愀瀀猀 椀琀 眀愀猀 琀栀攀 洀漀猀琀  difficult part of Mao's political legacy. The mass movements that left millions ਀猀琀愀爀瘀攀搀 琀漀 搀攀愀琀栀Ⰰ 愀猀 椀渀 琀栀攀 䜀爀攀愀琀 䰀攀愀瀀 䘀漀爀眀愀爀搀 椀渀 ㄀㤀㔀㜀ⴀ㄀㤀㔀㤀 漀爀 ✀✀挀爀椀琀椀挀椀稀攀搀 琀漀  death'' in the Cultural Revolution 1966-1976, were easy to reject and discard as ਀攀瘀攀爀礀戀漀搀礀 猀甀昀昀攀爀攀搀 愀渀搀 渀漀戀漀搀礀 猀愀眀 愀渀礀琀栀椀渀最 瀀漀猀椀琀椀瘀攀 椀渀 琀栀攀洀⸀ 䘀漀爀攀椀最渀 瀀漀氀椀挀礀 眀愀猀  different. It brought positive consequences, in fact the only positive of Maoist ਀爀甀氀攀 琀漀 䌀栀椀渀愀 洀愀礀 栀愀瘀攀 戀攀攀渀 椀琀猀 昀漀爀攀椀最渀 瀀漀氀椀挀礀⸀ 㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀䴀愀漀✀猀 昀氀椀爀琀愀琀椀漀渀 眀椀琀栀  the Americans during World War II weakened American support for the communists' ਀爀攀愀氀 攀渀攀洀椀攀猀Ⰰ 琀栀攀 䬀甀漀洀椀渀琀愀渀最 ⠀䬀䴀吀⤀ 渀愀琀椀漀渀愀氀椀猀琀猀 漀昀 䜀攀渀攀爀愀氀椀猀猀椀洀漀 䌀栀椀愀渀最  Kai-shek. China's alliance with the Soviet Union bestowed millions of square ਀洀椀氀攀猀 琀漀 琀栀攀 匀漀瘀椀攀琀猀 ⠀愀猀 猀漀洀攀 欀椀渀搀 漀昀 琀攀爀爀椀琀漀爀椀愀氀 挀漀洀瀀攀渀猀愀琀椀漀渀Ⰰ 伀甀琀攀爀 䴀漀渀最漀氀椀愀Ⰰ  parts of northeast China and parts of Xinjiang) but provided the industrial and ਀琀攀挀栀渀漀氀漀最椀挀愀氀 戀愀猀椀猀 昀漀爀 爀攀挀漀瘀攀爀礀 愀昀琀攀爀 搀攀挀愀搀攀猀 漀昀 琀漀琀愀氀 眀愀爀 琀栀愀琀 栀愀搀 氀攀昀琀 䌀栀椀渀愀  poverty stricken.

Mao's turnaround and renewed flirtation and then ਀愀氀氀椀愀渀挀攀 眀椀琀栀 琀栀攀 䄀洀攀爀椀挀愀渀猀 椀渀 琀栀攀 ㄀㤀㜀 猀 瀀爀漀瘀椀搀攀搀 猀攀挀甀爀椀琀礀 昀爀漀洀 愀 琀攀渀猀攀爀  confrontation with the Soviet Union, and also furnished trade and technology as ਀琀栀攀 戀愀猀椀猀 昀漀爀 猀甀戀猀攀焀甀攀渀琀 昀愀猀琀 搀攀瘀攀氀漀瀀洀攀渀琀⸀ 㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀倀愀爀琀 漀昀 䴀愀漀✀猀 氀攀最愀挀礀Ⰰ  however, was also a strong nationalist streak. He won the political war in China ਀戀礀 猀甀挀挀攀猀猀昀甀氀氀礀 愀爀最甀椀渀最 漀昀 栀椀洀猀攀氀昀 愀猀 洀漀爀攀 瀀愀琀爀椀漀琀椀挀 愀渀搀 愀渀琀椀ⴀ䨀愀瀀愀渀攀猀攀 琀栀愀渀 栀椀猀  domestic enemies, the KMT. In fact, nationalist rhetoric was much stronger than ਀挀漀洀洀甀渀椀猀琀 椀搀攀漀氀漀最礀 愀琀 琀栀攀 琀椀洀攀 栀攀 昀椀爀猀琀 爀漀猀攀 琀漀 瀀漀眀攀爀 椀渀 ㄀㤀㐀㤀⸀ 㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀吀栀攀  1950-1953 Korea war was dressed up as a nationalist fight against a possible ਀椀渀瘀愀猀椀漀渀 戀礀 琀栀攀 䄀洀攀爀椀挀愀渀猀⸀ 吀栀椀猀 渀愀琀椀漀渀愀氀椀猀琀 爀栀攀琀漀爀椀挀 愀氀猀漀 挀漀氀漀爀攀搀 琀栀攀 洀漀猀琀  controversial part of his foreign policy: the support to foreign communist ਀爀攀瘀漀氀甀琀椀漀渀猀 椀渀 挀漀洀瀀攀琀椀琀椀漀渀 眀椀琀栀 䄀洀攀爀椀挀愀渀Ⰰ 匀漀瘀椀攀琀 愀渀搀 吀栀椀爀搀 圀漀爀氀搀 瀀漀氀椀挀椀攀猀⸀ 

Mao's support of revolution in Malaysia or Indonesia often became a ਀昀椀最栀琀 昀漀爀 琀栀攀 爀椀最栀琀猀 ⠀漀爀 瀀爀椀瘀椀氀攀最攀猀⤀ 漀昀 琀栀攀 氀漀挀愀氀 䌀栀椀渀攀猀攀 洀椀渀漀爀椀琀礀Ⰰ 眀栀漀  incidentally were also the richest layer of society. This also split local ਀䌀栀椀渀攀猀攀 挀漀洀洀甀渀椀琀椀攀猀㨀 猀漀洀攀 漀昀 琀栀攀洀 愀琀琀爀愀挀琀攀搀 戀礀 琀栀攀 眀愀昀琀 漀昀 琀栀攀 䌀栀椀渀攀猀攀  nationalist perfume drifting to a nominal communist cause, others who were ਀猀挀愀爀攀搀 漀昀 琀栀攀 挀漀洀洀甀渀椀猀琀 攀砀瀀攀爀椀攀渀挀攀 椀渀 䌀栀椀渀愀 猀琀甀挀欀 洀漀爀攀 挀氀漀猀攀氀礀 琀漀 琀栀攀  Nationalist cause supported by Taiwan, where the KMT took refuge after 1949. ਀㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀伀瘀攀爀愀氀氀Ⰰ 䴀愀漀✀猀 猀甀瀀瀀漀爀琀 昀漀爀 琀栀攀 爀攀瘀漀氀甀琀椀漀渀愀爀礀 挀愀甀猀攀 椀渀 渀攀椀最栀戀漀爀椀渀最 漀爀  distant countries caused reverberations all over the world. China was considered ਀愀 猀攀挀漀渀搀 匀漀瘀椀攀琀 攀洀瀀椀爀攀Ⰰ 椀渀琀攀爀攀猀琀攀搀 椀渀 攀砀瀀愀渀搀椀渀最 椀琀猀 猀瀀栀攀爀攀 漀昀 瀀漀氀椀琀椀挀愀氀  influence through ideology and support for revolution.

Besides Malaysia ਀愀渀搀 䤀渀搀漀渀攀猀椀愀Ⰰ 䈀攀椀樀椀渀最 栀愀搀 攀昀昀攀挀琀椀瘀攀氀礀 戀愀挀欀攀搀 甀瀀爀椀猀椀渀最 愀渀搀 琀栀攀渀 眀愀爀 椀渀 䤀渀搀漀挀栀椀渀愀  in the 1950s and 1960s, had sent thousands of ''volunteers'' to Burma (now ਀䴀礀愀渀洀愀爀⤀ 愀渀搀 吀栀愀椀氀愀渀搀Ⰰ ✀✀愀搀瘀椀猀攀爀猀✀✀ 琀漀 䴀漀稀愀洀戀椀焀甀攀 愀渀搀 吀愀渀稀愀渀椀愀Ⰰ 栀愀搀 琀爀愀椀渀攀搀  guerrilla fighters from Mexico and Abyssinia, and had wooed explosive ਀爀攀瘀漀氀甀琀椀漀渀愀爀椀攀猀 昀爀漀洀 愀氀洀漀猀琀 攀瘀攀爀礀 渀愀琀椀漀渀 椀渀 䔀甀爀漀瀀攀⸀ 䄀氀氀 漀昀 琀栀椀猀 眀愀猀 愀挀琀甀愀氀氀礀 愀渀  expansion of Chinese foreign policy reach, and was in reality a costly policy ਀琀栀愀琀 猀琀爀愀椀渀攀搀 猀琀愀琀攀 挀漀昀昀攀爀猀⸀ 㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀匀甀挀栀 攀挀漀渀漀洀椀挀愀氀氀礀 愀渀搀 瀀漀氀椀琀椀挀愀氀氀礀 攀砀瀀攀渀猀椀瘀攀  policies started to be curtailed in Deng's rule. China simply could not afford ਀琀栀攀 攀砀瀀攀渀搀椀琀甀爀攀 渀漀爀 琀栀攀 最爀漀眀椀渀最 椀猀漀氀愀琀椀漀渀 愀猀 椀琀 眀愀猀 瀀攀爀挀攀椀瘀攀搀 琀漀 戀攀  destabilizing half of the world to expand its reach.

However, these ਀瀀漀氀椀挀椀攀猀Ⰰ 眀椀琀栀 琀栀攀椀爀 焀甀椀挀欀ⴀ琀攀洀瀀攀爀攀搀 洀椀砀 漀昀 戀漀椀猀琀攀爀漀甀猀 爀栀攀琀漀爀椀挀Ⰰ 戀甀氀氀礀椀渀最 愀渀搀  sudden withdrawals, were also closely linked with overall Maoist foreign ਀瀀漀氀椀挀椀攀猀 琀栀愀琀 栀愀搀 洀愀搀攀 䌀栀椀渀愀 椀渀搀攀瀀攀渀搀攀渀琀 愀渀搀 栀攀氀瀀攀搀 椀琀 爀攀愀挀栀 愀 昀椀爀猀琀 氀攀瘀攀氀 漀昀  military and technological advancement.

Moreover, China could not thrust ਀猀甀挀栀 瀀漀氀椀挀椀攀猀 愀猀椀搀攀 挀漀洀瀀氀攀琀攀氀礀 戀攀挀愀甀猀攀 䈀攀椀樀椀渀最✀猀 愀最最爀攀猀猀椀瘀攀 瀀漀猀琀甀爀攀 瀀爀漀瘀椀搀攀搀  good leverage against the United States already engaged in a struggle with the ਀匀漀瘀椀攀琀猀⸀ 䤀渀 昀愀挀琀Ⰰ 䌀栀椀渀愀✀猀 戀漀爀搀攀爀 眀愀爀 愀最愀椀渀猀琀 匀漀瘀椀攀琀ⴀ戀愀挀欀攀搀 嘀椀攀琀渀愀洀 椀渀 ㄀㤀㜀㤀 愀昀琀攀爀  Hanoi toppled the frantically crazy yet fiercely anti-Vietnamese Khmer Rouge in ਀䌀愀洀戀漀搀椀愀Ⰰ 栀攀氀瀀攀搀 琀漀 挀栀攀挀欀 嘀椀攀琀渀愀洀攀猀攀 愀最最爀攀猀猀椀漀渀 椀渀 䤀渀搀漀挀栀椀渀愀 愀渀搀 甀渀搀攀爀挀甀琀 匀漀瘀椀攀琀  ambitions in Asia.

However, just that war finally proved to China that ਀椀琀 渀攀攀搀攀搀 愀 挀漀洀瀀氀攀砀 漀瘀攀爀栀愀甀氀 漀昀 椀琀猀 昀漀爀攀椀最渀 瀀漀氀椀挀礀 愀渀搀 洀椀氀椀琀愀爀礀 猀琀爀愀琀攀最礀⸀  However, a new strategy could not represent a complete denial of Mao's policies. ਀䤀渀 琀栀攀 氀愀琀攀 ㄀㤀㜀 猀Ⰰ 䐀攀渀最 堀椀愀漀瀀椀渀最 琀栀攀渀 挀愀洀攀 甀瀀 眀椀琀栀 琀栀攀 搀漀挀琀爀椀渀攀 漀昀 㰀䤀㸀吀愀漀 最甀愀渀最  yan hui.

That phrase means to bide one's time to get revenge. ਀䄀挀琀甀愀氀氀礀 愀 焀甀漀琀攀 昀爀漀洀 琀栀攀 昀愀洀漀甀猀 ㄀㐀琀栀 挀攀渀琀甀爀礀 渀漀瘀攀氀 漀渀 猀琀爀愀琀攀最礀Ⰰ 㰀䤀㸀刀漀洀愀渀挀攀 漀昀  the Three Kingdoms by Luo Guanzhong, it carries sinister undertones. The ਀椀搀攀愀 椀猀 猀琀椀氀氀 焀甀椀琀攀 昀椀攀爀挀攀 愀渀搀 愀最最爀攀猀猀椀瘀攀㬀 猀椀最渀椀昀椀挀愀渀琀氀礀 洀椀氀搀攀爀 栀漀眀攀瘀攀爀 琀栀愀渀 琀栀攀  previous Maoist tenets of  exporting global revolution and strongly ਀愀昀昀椀爀洀椀渀最 䌀栀椀渀愀✀猀 漀瘀攀爀愀氀氀 瀀漀眀攀爀Ⰰ 愀氀琀栀漀甀最栀 椀琀 搀漀攀猀 渀漀琀 戀爀攀愀欀 挀漀洀瀀氀攀琀攀氀礀 昀爀漀洀 琀栀愀琀  tradition. It was saying to the most combative Maoist veterans: wait, this is ਀渀漀琀 琀栀攀 琀椀洀攀 琀漀 戀攀 愀最最爀攀猀猀椀瘀攀Ⰰ 挀愀氀洀 搀漀眀渀⸀ 㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀圀栀椀氀攀 眀愀椀琀椀渀最Ⰰ 栀漀眀攀瘀攀爀Ⰰ 琀栀攀  whole domestic and international atmosphere was changing - and maybe there would ਀戀攀 渀漀 渀攀攀搀 昀漀爀 爀攀瘀攀渀最攀 愀琀 愀 氀愀琀攀爀 猀琀愀最攀⸀ 䄀猀 愀 洀漀琀琀漀Ⰰ 琀栀攀 㰀䤀㸀吀栀爀攀攀 䬀椀渀最搀漀洀猀㰀⼀䤀㸀  quote was ambiguous, and as such it provided room for building internal ਀挀漀渀猀攀渀猀甀猀⸀ 䤀昀 琀栀攀 䴀愀漀椀猀琀猀✀ 愀最最爀攀猀猀椀瘀攀 瀀漀猀琀甀爀攀 眀愀猀 愀戀愀渀搀漀渀攀搀Ⰰ 琀栀攀 瀀愀爀琀礀 挀漀甀氀搀  split, the aggressive nationalist minority could pose as a true heir to the ਀䴀愀漀椀猀琀 椀搀攀愀氀猀 愀渀搀 琀栀爀攀愀琀攀渀 䌀栀椀渀愀 眀椀琀栀 愀 猀攀挀漀渀搀Ⰰ 攀焀甀愀氀氀礀 搀攀猀琀爀甀挀琀椀瘀攀 䴀愀漀椀猀琀  revolution.

Some 20 years later, a second massive move came from the ਀愀最最爀攀猀猀椀瘀攀 䴀愀漀椀猀琀 瀀漀猀琀甀爀攀Ⰰ 眀椀琀栀 琀栀攀 搀漀挀琀爀椀渀攀 漀昀 ∀瀀攀愀挀攀昀甀氀 爀椀猀攀∀⸀ 吀栀椀猀 椀搀攀愀  derives and it is a revolution from Deng's idea of tao guang yan hui. In ਀琀栀椀猀 猀攀渀猀攀Ⰰ 琀栀攀 甀猀攀 漀昀 瀀攀愀挀攀昀甀氀 爀椀猀攀 攀爀愀猀攀猀 愀渀礀 椀搀攀愀 漀昀 爀攀瘀攀渀最攀 椀渀 愀 昀甀琀甀爀攀 琀椀洀攀  when China will have grown stronger. It pushes the Maoist legacy further away, ਀愀氀洀漀猀琀 戀甀爀礀椀渀最 椀琀 甀渀搀攀爀 琀栀攀 爀甀戀戀氀攀 漀昀 栀椀猀琀漀爀礀⸀ 㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀吀栀攀 椀搀攀愀 漀昀 瀀攀愀挀攀昀甀氀 爀椀猀攀  was first introduced in the late 1990s and took several years to gain official ਀愀挀挀攀瀀琀愀渀挀攀 愀猀 洀愀渀礀 椀渀 䌀栀椀渀愀✀猀 琀漀瀀 攀挀栀攀氀漀渀猀 搀椀搀渀✀琀 愀最爀攀攀 眀椀琀栀 椀琀⸀ 䠀漀眀攀瘀攀爀Ⰰ 挀漀洀椀渀最  from Zheng Bijian, who had been policy adviser to former party secretary Hu ਀夀愀漀戀愀渀最Ⰰ 椀琀 挀愀爀爀椀攀搀 愀 氀漀琀 漀昀 眀攀椀最栀琀⸀ 䠀甀 栀愀搀 戀攀攀渀 猀攀挀爀攀琀愀爀礀 琀漀 䐀攀渀最 堀椀愀漀瀀椀渀最 愀渀搀  was instrumental for the promotion of the future party chief Hu Jintao. ਀㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀吀栀攀 椀搀攀愀 漀昀 㰀䤀㸀琀愀漀 最甀愀渀最 礀愀渀 栀甀椀㰀⼀䤀㸀 眀愀猀 攀砀琀爀攀洀攀氀礀 椀洀瀀漀爀琀愀渀琀 椀渀 䐀攀渀最✀猀  doctrine to concentrate resources for the economic build-up. Economic growth and ਀搀攀瘀攀氀漀瀀洀攀渀琀 眀攀爀攀 漀昀 瀀愀爀愀洀漀甀渀琀 椀洀瀀漀爀琀愀渀挀攀Ⰰ 愀渀搀 椀琀 眀愀猀 愀琀 琀栀椀猀 愀氀琀愀爀 琀栀愀琀 琀栀攀  hopes of millions of families were sacrificed.

In 1980, China introduced ਀猀琀爀椀挀琀 昀愀洀椀氀礀 瀀氀愀渀渀椀渀最Ⰰ 眀栀椀挀栀 氀椀洀椀琀攀搀 琀栀攀 渀甀洀戀攀爀 漀昀 挀栀椀氀搀爀攀渀 椀渀 攀愀挀栀 昀愀洀椀氀礀 琀漀  one. In the 30 years since this policy was implemented, China reckons it has cut ਀椀琀猀 瀀漀瀀甀氀愀琀椀漀渀 最爀漀眀琀栀 戀礀 㐀   洀椀氀氀椀漀渀⸀ 䤀渀 漀琀栀攀爀 眀漀爀搀猀Ⰰ 椀昀 渀漀琀 昀漀爀 琀栀攀  introduction of the one-child policy, China's population would be around 1.8 ਀戀椀氀氀椀漀渀 瀀攀漀瀀氀攀Ⰰ 猀漀洀攀 㐀   洀椀氀氀椀漀渀 洀漀爀攀 琀栀愀渀 椀琀 椀猀 琀漀搀愀礀⸀ 㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀吀栀攀 眀椀氀氀椀渀最  sacrifice of its best treasure, siblings who traditionally are the Chinese ਀昀愀洀椀氀礀✀猀 最爀攀愀琀攀猀琀 漀戀樀攀挀琀猀 漀昀 眀漀爀猀栀椀瀀Ⰰ 洀愀搀攀 椀琀 洀甀挀栀 攀愀猀椀攀爀 琀漀 猀愀挀爀椀昀椀挀攀 琀栀攀  future spending of its army to channel resources into the overall economy. The ਀椀搀攀愀 漀昀 愀瘀漀椀搀椀渀最 攀挀漀渀漀洀椀挀愀氀氀礀 甀渀瀀爀漀搀甀挀琀椀瘀攀 愀爀洀猀 攀砀瀀攀渀搀椀琀甀爀攀 眀愀猀 氀愀琀攀爀 爀攀椀渀昀漀爀挀攀搀  by China's careful observation of the American strategy of drawing the Soviet ਀唀渀椀漀渀 椀渀琀漀 愀 挀漀猀琀氀礀 愀爀洀猀 爀愀挀攀⸀ 㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀䈀攀椀樀椀渀最 爀攀挀欀漀渀攀搀 椀渀 琀栀攀 ㄀㤀㠀 猀 愀渀搀 ㄀㤀㤀 猀  that it was the arms race with America that ultimately bankrupted the Soviet ਀攀洀瀀椀爀攀 愀渀搀 氀攀搀 琀漀 椀琀猀 挀漀氀氀愀瀀猀攀⸀ 吀栀攀 爀攀愀氀椀琀礀 椀猀 琀栀愀琀 愀爀洀猀 爀愀挀攀猀 愀爀攀 甀氀琀椀洀愀琀攀氀礀  won by the country with the healthier economy. Vice versa, China's idea was to ਀攀猀琀愀戀氀椀猀栀 愀 洀椀渀椀洀愀氀 挀漀渀琀愀椀渀洀攀渀琀 猀琀爀愀琀攀最礀⸀ 㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀䤀琀 眀愀猀 攀渀漀甀最栀 昀漀爀 䌀栀椀渀愀 琀漀  think it could preserve its independence with a minimal deterrence, reckoning ਀琀栀愀琀 䄀洀攀爀椀挀愀 挀漀甀氀搀 眀攀氀氀 搀攀猀琀爀漀礀 愀氀氀 漀昀 䌀栀椀渀愀 戀甀琀 䌀栀椀渀愀 挀漀甀氀搀 愀琀 氀攀愀猀琀 爀攀愀挀栀 漀渀攀  American city with an atomic-loaded ballistic missile. The threat of damage or ਀搀攀猀琀爀甀挀琀椀漀渀 漀昀 樀甀猀琀 漀渀攀 䄀洀攀爀椀挀愀渀 挀椀琀礀 眀漀甀氀搀 戀攀 攀渀漀甀最栀 琀漀 搀攀琀攀爀 瀀漀猀猀椀戀氀攀 䄀洀攀爀椀挀愀渀  attacks, even without considering a mutually destructive clash.

The ਀瀀漀椀渀琀 琀栀攀渀 眀愀猀 琀漀 猀琀愀爀琀 愀 瀀爀漀挀攀猀猀 漀昀 攀挀漀渀漀洀椀挀 最爀漀眀琀栀 琀栀愀琀 眀漀甀氀搀 攀猀琀愀戀氀椀猀栀 戀礀  itself the conditions to win a confrontation with any power.

In the late ਀㄀㤀㤀 猀Ⰰ 椀琀 愀瀀瀀攀愀爀攀搀 挀氀攀愀爀 琀栀愀琀 攀挀漀渀漀洀椀挀 最爀漀眀琀栀 挀漀甀氀搀 渀漀琀 漀渀氀礀 栀攀氀瀀 眀椀渀 愀 瀀漀猀猀椀戀氀攀  arms race by itself, but would also provide the necessary conditions to ''win'' ਀䌀栀椀渀愀✀猀 瀀爀椀洀愀挀礀 椀渀 琀栀攀 眀漀爀氀搀 眀椀琀栀漀甀琀 愀渀礀 爀攀挀漀甀爀猀攀 琀漀 洀椀氀椀琀愀爀礀 挀漀渀昀爀漀渀琀愀琀椀漀渀  whatsoever. It was clear that the winds of history were on China's side and that ਀攀挀漀渀漀洀椀挀 搀攀瘀攀氀漀瀀洀攀渀琀 戀礀 椀琀猀攀氀昀 挀漀甀氀搀 琀愀欀攀 䌀栀椀渀愀 琀漀 猀甀瀀攀爀瀀漀眀攀爀 猀琀愀琀甀猀⸀ 

China had only one problem: not to be drawn into a military ਀挀漀渀昀爀漀渀琀愀琀椀漀渀Ⰰ 渀漀琀 琀漀 最攀琀 琀栀攀 眀椀渀搀 琀愀欀攀渀 漀甀琀 漀昀 椀琀猀 攀挀漀渀漀洀椀挀 猀愀椀氀猀⸀ 䘀漀爀 琀栀椀猀  purpose, military development and military confrontation had to be held to a ਀洀椀渀椀洀甀洀 愀渀搀 愀渀礀 搀攀瘀椀愀琀椀漀渀 昀爀漀洀 琀栀愀琀 氀攀瘀攀氀 眀漀甀氀搀 瀀氀愀礀 愀最愀椀渀猀琀 䌀栀椀渀愀⸀ 䌀栀椀渀愀 栀愀搀  thus to avoid any provocation.

Reaching for peaceful rise
The ਀猀氀漀眀 瀀爀漀挀攀猀猀 漀昀 瀀攀愀挀攀昀甀氀 爀椀猀攀 挀愀洀攀 琀漀 昀爀甀椀琀椀漀渀 椀渀 ㈀  㔀 眀栀攀渀 娀栀攀渀最 䈀椀樀椀愀渀Ⰰ 眀栀漀  was then executive vice president to the Central Party School, published an ਀攀猀猀愀礀 椀渀 䄀洀攀爀椀挀愀 搀攀琀愀椀氀椀渀最 䌀栀椀渀愀✀猀 搀漀挀琀爀椀渀攀 漀渀 琀栀攀 洀愀琀琀攀爀⸀ 嬀㌀崀 㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀吀栀攀  article argued that China would not seek a hegemonic status in the world and ਀眀漀甀氀搀 渀漀琀 攀渀最愀最攀 椀渀 攀砀瀀愀渀猀椀漀渀椀猀琀椀挀 眀愀爀猀⸀ 䤀琀 攀砀瀀氀愀椀渀攀搀 栀漀眀 椀洀瀀攀爀椀愀氀 䌀栀椀渀愀 漀昀 琀栀攀  past, although very powerful at times, never went out of its own political ਀戀愀猀椀渀⸀ 㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀吀栀攀 愀爀最甀洀攀渀琀 眀愀猀 愀 爀攀猀瀀漀渀猀攀 琀漀 圀攀猀琀攀爀渀 愀氀氀攀最愀琀椀漀渀猀 琀栀愀琀 䌀栀椀渀愀Ⰰ 愀猀  it grew strong and powerful, would also grow aggressive, just as Germany's ਀猀琀愀琀甀爀攀 椀渀 琀栀攀 ㄀㤀琀栀 挀攀渀琀甀爀礀 攀瘀攀渀琀甀愀氀氀礀 氀攀搀 琀漀 圀漀爀氀搀 圀愀爀 䤀⸀ 䘀甀爀琀栀攀爀洀漀爀攀Ⰰ 挀漀洀椀渀最  from a person with such an illustrious background, it was a public political ਀瀀氀攀搀最攀⸀ 䌀栀椀渀愀 椀渀 琀栀攀 昀甀琀甀爀攀 眀漀甀氀搀 渀漀琀 琀爀礀 琀漀 戀攀 愀最最爀攀猀猀椀瘀攀 愀渀搀 愀渀礀戀漀搀礀 挀漀甀氀搀  turn this article against Beijing if Beijing did become aggressive, making it ਀氀漀猀攀 昀愀挀攀Ⰰ 愀渀搀 攀猀猀攀渀琀椀愀氀 椀渀琀攀爀渀愀琀椀漀渀愀氀 瀀漀氀椀琀椀挀愀氀 挀愀瀀椀琀愀氀⸀ 㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀䤀渀 䌀栀椀渀攀猀攀  political logic, Zheng's pledge was very significant. It was and it remains a ਀挀漀洀洀椀琀洀攀渀琀 愀戀漀甀琀 昀甀琀甀爀攀 瀀漀氀椀挀椀攀猀Ⰰ 戀礀 眀栀椀挀栀 䌀栀椀渀攀猀攀 椀渀琀攀爀渀愀氀 愀渀搀 椀渀琀攀爀渀愀琀椀漀渀愀氀  credibility and accountability can be gauged.

However, Western skeptics ਀欀渀漀眀 昀甀氀氀 眀攀氀氀 琀栀愀琀 瀀漀氀椀琀椀挀愀氀 瀀氀攀搀最攀猀 挀愀渀 戀攀 琀甀爀渀攀搀 甀瀀猀椀搀攀 搀漀眀渀 戀礀 瀀漀氀椀琀椀挀愀氀  necessity. The real question, they argue, is whether China feels it necessary to ਀瀀甀琀 愀猀椀搀攀 椀琀猀 瘀漀眀 昀漀爀 瀀攀愀挀攀昀甀氀 爀椀猀攀 愀渀搀 攀渀最愀最攀 椀渀 愀渀 愀最最爀攀猀猀椀瘀攀 昀漀爀攀椀最渀 瀀漀氀椀挀礀㼀  What conditions would provoke China into aggressive behavior? Would Taiwan's ਀甀渀椀氀愀琀攀爀愀氀 搀攀挀氀愀爀愀琀椀漀渀 漀昀 椀渀搀攀瀀攀渀搀攀渀挀攀 琀椀瀀 琀栀攀 戀愀氀愀渀挀攀㼀 䠀漀眀 挀愀渀 眀攀 戀攀氀椀攀瘀攀 琀栀愀琀  China is serious about a peaceful rise?

China's love for peace may then ਀氀漀漀欀 氀椀欀攀 琀栀愀琀 漀昀 ㄀㤀琀栀 挀攀渀琀甀爀礀 䜀攀爀洀愀渀礀 ⴀ 欀攀攀瀀椀渀最 琀漀 瀀攀愀挀攀 漀渀氀礀 愀猀 氀漀渀最 愀猀 椀琀  fits its goals. Yet the comparison is an extremely weak one. Germany managed to ਀最愀椀渀 椀琀猀 猀琀愀琀甀猀 愀猀 挀漀渀琀椀渀攀渀琀愀氀 猀甀瀀攀爀瀀漀眀攀爀 琀栀愀渀欀猀 琀漀 琀眀漀 猀甀挀挀攀猀猀昀甀氀 眀愀爀猀 愀最愀椀渀猀琀  two of the major powers of the time. Its defeat of Austria in 1866 put a ਀搀攀昀椀渀椀琀攀 攀渀搀 琀漀 琀栀攀 䠀漀氀礀 刀漀洀愀渀 䔀洀瀀椀爀攀Ⰰ 昀漀爀 挀攀渀琀甀爀椀攀猀 琀栀攀 戀甀氀眀愀爀欀 漀昀 䌀愀琀栀漀氀椀挀椀猀洀  in the Europe. In 1870, it beat Napoleon III's France and put a stop to French ਀愀洀戀椀琀椀漀渀猀 漀瘀攀爀 䔀甀爀漀瀀攀⸀ 㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀吀栀漀猀攀 琀眀漀 眀愀爀猀 瀀爀漀瘀攀搀 琀漀 䔀甀爀漀瀀攀Ⰰ 琀栀攀渀 琀栀攀  political center of the world, the prowess of the Prussian army, greatly ਀攀渀氀愀爀最攀搀 倀爀甀猀猀椀愀渀 琀攀爀爀椀琀漀爀礀 愀渀搀 琀爀愀渀猀昀漀爀洀攀搀 椀琀 椀渀琀漀 ✀✀䜀攀爀洀愀渀礀✀✀Ⰰ 琀栀攀 猀琀愀琀攀 琀栀愀琀  eventually fought and almost beat single handedly all of Europe between 1914 and ਀㄀㤀㄀㠀⸀ 吀栀攀渀Ⰰ 眀攀 挀愀渀 猀攀攀 琀栀愀琀 䜀攀爀洀愀渀礀 眀愀猀 戀漀爀渀 漀甀琀 漀昀 眀愀爀猀 愀最愀椀渀猀琀 琀栀攀 洀愀樀漀爀  powers of the time, and thanks to those wars it shaped its own territory, with ਀攀砀瀀愀渀猀椀漀渀 愀琀 琀栀攀 攀砀瀀攀渀猀攀 漀昀 䄀甀猀琀爀椀愀 愀渀搀 䘀爀愀渀挀攀⸀ 㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀䌀栀椀渀愀 栀愀猀 渀漀琀 昀漀甀最栀琀 愀渀  expansionist war for over a century. In fact, for over a century it has been ਀昀椀最栀琀椀渀最 眀愀爀猀 愀最愀椀渀猀琀 攀渀攀洀椀攀猀 琀爀礀椀渀最 琀漀 挀愀爀瘀攀 漀甀琀 椀琀猀 琀攀爀爀椀琀漀爀礀⸀ 䌀栀椀渀愀 栀愀搀 椀琀猀  last border war in the early 1970s against the Soviet Union and in its last ਀洀椀氀椀琀愀爀礀 挀氀愀猀栀Ⰰ 眀栀椀挀栀 漀挀挀甀爀爀攀搀 椀渀 ㄀㤀㠀㠀 愀最愀椀渀猀琀 猀漀洀攀 嘀椀攀琀渀愀洀攀猀攀 挀漀愀猀琀 瀀愀琀爀漀氀猀Ⰰ  only a few score of people were involved and the incident was soon buried under ਀愀 昀氀甀爀爀礀 漀昀 搀椀瀀氀漀洀愀挀礀⸀ 㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀吀栀攀 洀愀樀漀爀 猀攀琀戀愀挀欀 琀漀 洀漀爀攀 琀栀愀渀 琀栀爀攀攀 搀攀挀愀搀攀猀 漀昀  reform came after the 1989 Tiananmen crackdown. For a couple of years, Chinese ਀戀甀猀椀渀攀猀猀 愀渀搀 搀攀瘀攀氀漀瀀洀攀渀琀 猀甀昀昀攀爀攀搀 最爀攀愀琀氀礀⸀ 䄀氀琀栀漀甀最栀 䌀栀椀渀愀 眀愀猀 渀漀琀 椀渀瘀漀氀瘀攀搀 椀渀 愀  foreign war and the protests did not evolve into a civil war, the episode ਀猀甀昀昀椀挀攀搀 琀漀 猀挀愀爀攀 戀漀琀栀 搀漀洀攀猀琀椀挀 愀渀搀 昀漀爀攀椀最渀 攀渀琀攀爀瀀爀椀猀攀猀⸀ 㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀䤀渀 昀愀挀琀Ⰰ 甀渀氀椀欀攀  the rise of other powers, China's economy has managed to grow at a rate of ਀愀氀洀漀猀琀 ㄀ ─ 愀 礀攀愀爀 昀漀爀 琀栀攀 瀀愀猀琀 ㌀  礀攀愀爀猀 眀椀琀栀漀甀琀 攀椀琀栀攀爀 眀愀爀 漀爀 愀渀礀 洀愀樀漀爀 搀漀洀攀猀琀椀挀  and international confrontation. China, in other words, has grown thanks to ਀瀀攀愀挀攀⸀ 吀栀椀猀 栀愀猀 最甀愀爀愀渀琀攀攀搀 愀渀 攀渀瘀椀爀漀渀洀攀渀琀 戀漀琀栀 挀漀渀搀甀挀琀椀瘀攀 琀漀 戀甀猀椀渀攀猀猀Ⰰ 愀渀搀 愀氀猀漀Ⰰ  very importantly, no major wastage in costly wars or armament programs drawing ਀椀渀瘀攀猀琀洀攀渀琀 昀爀漀洀 瀀爀漀搀甀挀琀椀瘀攀 最漀愀氀猀⸀ 㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀吀栀攀 瀀愀猀琀 ㌀  礀攀愀爀猀 栀愀瘀攀 戀攀攀渀 琀栀攀 洀漀猀琀  peaceful of the past 170 years, since the time of the first Opium war. Then, ਀愀昀琀攀爀 琀栀攀 吀愀椀瀀椀渀最 爀攀戀攀氀氀椀漀渀Ⰰ 琀栀攀爀攀 眀攀爀攀 琀栀攀 眀愀爀猀 愀最愀椀渀猀琀 䈀爀椀琀愀椀渀Ⰰ 䘀爀愀渀挀攀Ⰰ 䨀愀瀀愀渀Ⰰ  Russia, until the Boxers' rebellion and the humiliating crackdown in the hands ਀漀昀 昀漀爀攀椀最渀 瀀漀眀攀爀猀 椀渀 ㄀㤀  ⸀ 䤀琀 眀愀猀 琀栀攀 氀愀猀琀 猀琀爀愀眀 昀漀爀 琀栀攀 搀礀渀愀猀琀礀 愀渀搀 椀琀 昀攀氀氀  soon after, starting a long period of civil war culminating with the Japanese ਀椀渀瘀愀猀椀漀渀⸀ 㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀圀栀攀渀 琀栀攀 挀漀洀洀甀渀椀猀琀猀 琀漀漀欀 瀀漀眀攀爀 椀琀 眀愀猀 渀漀琀 琀栀攀 攀渀搀 漀昀 䌀栀椀渀攀猀攀  bellicosity. Millions died in domestic political movements and hundreds of ਀琀栀漀甀猀愀渀搀猀 漀昀 ✀✀瘀漀氀甀渀琀攀攀爀猀✀✀ 眀攀爀攀 搀椀猀瀀愀琀挀栀攀搀 愀戀爀漀愀搀 琀漀 ✀✀猀甀瀀瀀漀爀琀 琀栀攀 爀攀瘀漀氀甀琀椀漀渀✀✀  in neighboring countries, while the People's Liberation Army (PLA) itself was ਀挀愀氀氀攀搀 琀漀 搀攀昀攀渀搀 琀栀攀 洀漀琀栀攀爀氀愀渀搀 愀最愀椀渀猀琀 琀栀攀 䄀洀攀爀椀挀愀渀猀 愀渀搀 琀栀攀 匀漀甀琀栀 䬀漀爀攀愀渀猀  (1951), the Indians (1962), the Russians (1971), the Vietnamese (1979). ਀㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀䄀氀氀 琀栀攀猀攀 眀愀爀猀Ⰰ 琀栀攀猀攀 洀漀瘀攀洀攀渀琀猀Ⰰ 愀渀搀 琀栀攀猀攀 搀攀愀搀 瀀攀漀瀀氀攀Ⰰ 搀椀搀 渀漀琀 愀搀瘀愀渀挀攀  an inch of China's international profile, quite the contrary. They squandered ਀瀀漀氀椀琀椀挀愀氀 愀渀搀 瀀栀礀猀椀挀愀氀 挀愀瀀椀琀愀氀 愀渀搀 洀愀搀攀 䌀栀椀渀愀 愀渀搀 琀栀攀 䌀栀椀渀攀猀攀 瀀攀漀瀀氀攀 瘀攀爀礀 瀀漀漀爀⸀ 

In the past 30 years, there was one violent clash (the one against the ਀嘀椀攀琀渀愀洀攀猀攀 戀漀愀琀猀 椀渀 ㄀㤀㠀㠀⤀ 愀渀搀 愀氀猀漀 琀栀攀 瀀爀攀瘀椀漀甀猀 瘀椀漀氀攀渀琀 渀琀攀渀猀椀琀礀 漀昀 洀愀猀猀  movements and their crackdown has been waning. Hundreds of Tiananmen protesters ਀眀攀爀攀 猀栀漀琀 愀琀Ⰰ 戀甀琀 琀栀攀 渀甀洀戀攀爀 漀昀 挀愀猀甀愀氀琀椀攀猀 眀愀猀 爀椀猀椀戀氀攀 椀昀 挀漀洀瀀愀爀攀搀 眀椀琀栀 琀栀攀  times of the Cultural Revolution in the 1960s and 1970s, or the land reform of ਀琀栀攀 ㄀㤀㔀 猀Ⰰ 眀栀攀渀 洀椀氀氀椀漀渀猀 氀漀猀琀 琀栀攀椀爀 氀椀瘀攀猀⸀ 䄀昀琀攀爀 琀栀愀琀Ⰰ 攀瘀攀渀 愀 氀愀爀最攀 挀爀愀挀欀搀漀眀渀  such as that against the Falungong in 1999, was minimal if measured against ਀吀椀愀渀愀渀洀攀渀⸀ 䤀渀 昀愀挀琀Ⰰ 琀栀攀 氀攀猀猀 琀栀攀 瘀椀漀氀攀渀挀攀Ⰰ 琀栀攀 昀愀猀琀攀爀 愀渀搀 猀琀攀愀搀椀攀爀 琀栀攀 最爀漀眀琀栀⸀  The lesson learned in the past 30 years is that China can rise through peace, ਀渀漀琀 琀栀爀漀甀最栀 眀愀爀⸀ 㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀吀栀攀爀攀昀漀爀攀Ⰰ 爀攀愀氀椀琀礀 椀猀 洀甀挀栀 猀琀爀漀渀最攀爀 琀栀愀渀 娀栀攀渀最 愀爀最甀攀搀⸀  The reality is that China absolutely needs peace for its development, without ਀瀀攀愀挀攀 椀琀猀 搀攀瘀攀氀漀瀀洀攀渀琀 挀漀甀氀搀 戀攀 瀀甀琀 椀渀 樀攀漀瀀愀爀搀礀 愀渀搀 最愀椀渀猀 洀愀搀攀 椀渀 琀栀攀 瀀愀猀琀 琀栀爀攀攀  decades could easily be forfeited. China is fully aware that a series of simple ਀愀渀搀 猀攀爀椀漀甀猀 洀椀猀琀愀欀攀猀 挀漀甀氀搀 攀愀猀椀氀礀 搀攀渀琀 愀渀搀 搀攀猀琀爀漀礀 愀 渀愀琀椀漀渀愀氀 瀀漀猀椀琀椀漀渀 愀渀搀  wealth.

The GDP of Qing's China in 1840 was more than a third of global ਀䜀䐀倀㬀 琀栀甀猀 椀琀 眀愀猀 愀戀漀甀琀 㔀 ─ 爀椀挀栀攀爀 琀栀愀渀 䄀洀攀爀椀挀愀 椀渀 琀栀攀 ㄀㤀㜀 猀 愀渀搀 ㄀㤀㠀 猀⸀ 夀攀琀Ⰰ 椀渀  some 60 years, a refusal to engage in trade with European powers, a series of ਀洀椀猀琀愀欀攀猀 眀椀琀栀 昀漀爀攀椀最渀 挀漀甀渀琀爀椀攀猀 愀渀搀 愀 洀愀猀猀椀瘀攀 搀漀洀攀猀琀椀挀 爀攀戀攀氀氀椀漀渀 栀愀搀 洀愀猀猀椀瘀攀氀礀  impoverished the country.

China's GDP is (and will be for years) still ਀戀攀氀漀眀 ㄀ ─ 漀昀 琀栀攀 最氀漀戀愀氀 䜀䐀倀Ⰰ 愀渀搀 琀栀愀琀 瀀椀攀挀攀 漀昀 搀愀琀愀 漀瘀攀爀 琀栀攀 礀攀愀爀猀 琀漀 挀漀洀攀 眀椀氀氀  be a clear gauge to China's interest in keeping a peaceful environment and ਀猀栀甀渀渀椀渀最 眀愀爀 愀渀搀 挀漀渀昀爀漀渀琀愀琀椀漀渀⸀ 䘀甀爀琀栀攀爀洀漀爀攀Ⰰ 昀漀爀 洀漀爀攀 琀栀愀渀 愀 搀攀挀愀搀攀Ⰰ 䌀栀椀渀愀 栀愀猀  heavily financed US debt. China is America's major creditor, and possibly 70% of ਀椀琀猀 昀漀爀攀椀最渀 爀攀猀攀爀瘀攀猀 愀爀攀 椀渀 唀匀 搀漀氀氀愀爀⸀ 吀栀攀爀攀昀漀爀攀Ⰰ 䌀栀椀渀愀 椀猀 愀氀猀漀 昀椀渀愀渀挀椀渀最 琀栀攀 唀匀  army, in theory its major military enemy.

Still, it has to be understood ਀琀栀愀琀 䌀栀椀渀愀 栀愀猀 渀漀 椀渀琀攀爀攀猀琀 椀渀 瀀爀攀猀攀渀琀椀渀最 椀琀猀 琀栀攀猀椀猀 椀渀 琀攀爀洀猀 氀椀欀攀 琀栀愀琀⸀ 䤀昀 椀琀  were to say ''we desperately need peace'', this could invite bullying, something ਀䌀栀椀渀愀 昀攀愀爀猀 瘀攀爀礀 戀愀搀氀礀 最椀瘀攀渀 椀琀猀 瀀愀猀琀 ㄀㜀  礀攀愀爀猀 漀昀 栀椀猀琀漀爀礀⸀ 䌀栀椀渀愀 渀攀攀搀猀 琀漀 猀栀漀眀  itself strong and not weak to pre-empt anybody's provocation and challenge. Then ਀琀栀攀 搀漀挀琀爀椀渀攀 漀昀 瀀攀愀挀攀昀甀氀 爀椀猀攀 椀猀 挀爀愀昀琀攀搀 椀渀 愀 挀氀攀瘀攀爀 洀愀渀渀攀爀⸀ 䌀栀椀渀愀 瀀爀漀洀椀猀攀猀 渀漀琀  to be aggressive, and thus it does not concede that it needs peace and it does ਀渀漀琀 氀攀愀瘀攀 氀漀漀瀀栀漀氀攀猀 琀漀 瀀爀漀瘀漀挀愀琀椀漀渀⸀ 䠀漀眀攀瘀攀爀Ⰰ 琀栀攀 爀攀愀氀椀琀礀 椀猀 琀栀愀琀 瀀攀愀挀攀 椀猀 琀栀攀  only guarantor of development.

China could sacrifice peace only if ਀戀甀挀欀氀椀渀最 琀漀 愀渀 攀砀琀攀爀渀愀氀 琀栀爀攀愀琀 眀攀爀攀 琀漀 猀琀愀爀琀 愀渀 椀渀琀攀爀渀愀氀 猀琀爀甀最最氀攀 愀最愀椀渀猀琀 琀栀攀  balance of power in the party. For instance, if Taiwan were to unilaterally ਀搀攀挀氀愀爀攀 椀渀搀攀瀀攀渀搀攀渀挀攀Ⰰ 琀栀攀渀 琀栀攀 䌀栀椀渀攀猀攀 瀀爀攀猀椀搀攀渀琀 眀漀甀氀搀 栀愀瘀攀 琀漀 最漀 琀漀 眀愀爀⸀  Otherwise, it would put the present leadership in too dovish a posture - a ਀猀椀最渀愀氀 昀漀爀 琀栀攀 栀愀眀欀猀 琀漀 愀挀挀甀猀攀 椀琀 漀昀 戀攀椀渀最 猀瀀椀渀攀氀攀猀猀 眀攀愀欀氀椀渀最猀 愀渀搀 琀漀 琀爀礀 琀漀  change the overall political system, with dangers for the stability of the ਀挀漀甀渀琀爀礀⸀ 㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀䠀漀眀攀瘀攀爀Ⰰ 最漀椀渀最 琀漀 眀愀爀 攀瘀攀渀 椀渀 琀栀漀猀攀 攀砀琀爀攀洀攀 挀愀猀攀猀 椀猀 渀漀  guarantee of keeping power. If the Chinese army was defeated in a limited war, ਀琀栀椀猀 挀漀甀氀搀 愀氀猀漀 猀琀愀爀琀 愀 瀀漀眀攀爀 猀琀爀甀最最氀攀 椀渀 䈀攀椀樀椀渀最 琀栀愀琀 挀漀甀氀搀 琀漀瀀瀀氀攀 琀栀攀 瀀爀攀猀攀渀琀  leadership. China's poor performance in the 1979 war against Vietnam helped ਀猀攀挀甀爀攀 琀栀攀 瀀愀琀栀 漀昀 䐀攀渀最✀猀 爀攀昀漀爀洀猀 愀最愀椀渀猀琀 氀攀昀琀 眀椀渀最攀爀猀 眀栀漀 栀愀搀 琀愀欀攀渀 瀀愀爀琀 椀渀 琀栀攀  arrest of the Gang of Four. Reforms were deemed necessary also to modernize the ਀愀爀洀礀Ⰰ 甀渀琀椀氀 琀栀攀渀 瀀爀攀搀漀洀椀渀愀琀攀氀礀 挀漀渀猀椀搀攀爀攀搀 琀栀攀 戀愀挀欀戀漀渀攀 漀昀 琀栀攀 瀀愀爀琀礀⸀ 

China needs an army strong enough to safely win a limited war, or even ਀戀攀琀琀攀爀 愀渀 愀爀洀礀 猀琀爀漀渀最 攀渀漀甀最栀 琀漀 猀栀礀 愀眀愀礀 琀栀攀 瀀漀琀攀渀琀椀愀氀 攀渀攀洀礀 眀椀琀栀漀甀琀 攀瘀攀渀 昀椀爀椀渀最  a shot. In fact, every route to war is risky for China and its leadership. China ਀椀猀 琀栀攀爀攀昀漀爀攀 眀愀氀欀椀渀最 愀 搀愀渀最攀爀漀甀猀 琀椀最栀琀爀漀瀀攀⸀ 䤀琀 洀愀礀 最爀漀眀 琀栀椀挀欀攀爀 愀渀搀 洀漀爀攀 猀漀氀椀搀  as China's economy grows stronger, but which remains just a rope.

A ਀搀椀昀昀攀爀攀渀琀 瀀漀氀椀琀椀挀愀氀 猀礀猀琀攀洀Ⰰ 氀攀猀猀 昀爀愀最椀氀攀 琀栀攀渀 琀栀攀 瀀爀攀猀攀渀琀 猀攀挀爀攀琀椀瘀攀 愀渀搀  authoritarian one, could offer better guarantees of overall stability in case of ਀愀 挀爀椀猀椀猀 戀攀挀愀甀猀攀 漀昀 眀愀爀⸀ 䠀漀眀攀瘀攀爀Ⰰ 愀猀 椀渀 愀氀氀 爀椀猀椀渀最 挀漀甀渀琀爀椀攀猀Ⰰ 渀愀琀椀漀渀愀氀椀猀琀椀挀  programs can become easy springboards to power for the ambitious and ਀甀渀猀挀爀甀瀀甀氀漀甀猀Ⰰ 愀渀搀 愀 洀漀爀攀 搀攀洀漀挀爀愀琀椀挀 䌀栀椀渀愀 挀漀甀氀搀 戀攀 栀攀氀搀 栀漀猀琀愀最攀 琀漀 渀愀琀椀漀渀愀氀椀猀琀椀挀  elements. They could fan discontent among youths as a way to gain power. ਀㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀伀瘀攀爀愀氀氀Ⰰ 漀渀攀 挀愀渀渀漀琀 爀甀氀攀 漀甀琀 琀栀攀 瀀漀猀猀椀戀椀氀椀琀礀 琀栀愀琀 琀栀攀 瀀爀攀猀攀渀琀 瀀漀氀椀琀椀挀愀氀  system, just because of its inherent fragility, is more peace-prone than a more ਀漀瀀攀渀 瀀漀氀椀琀椀挀愀氀 猀礀猀琀攀洀 愀渀搀 椀渀 愀 猀琀爀漀渀最攀爀 瀀漀猀椀琀椀漀渀 琀漀 眀椀琀栀猀琀愀渀搀 挀爀椀猀攀猀⸀ 

Foreign threats to peaceful rise
Still, China's problems do ਀渀漀琀 攀渀搀 氀漀漀欀椀渀最 椀渀猀椀搀攀⸀ 倀氀攀渀琀礀 漀昀 瀀爀漀戀氀攀洀猀 挀漀洀攀 昀爀漀洀 琀栀漀猀攀 漀甀琀猀椀搀攀Ⰰ 昀漀爀 眀栀漀洀  China's rise has created fears, large and small.

Among the small fears ਀琀栀攀爀攀 愀爀攀 琀栀漀猀攀 漀昀 䄀洀攀爀椀挀愀渀猀 眀栀漀 猀攀攀 䌀栀椀渀愀 愀猀 愀 猀攀挀漀渀搀 眀愀瘀攀 漀昀 琀栀攀 ∀礀攀氀氀漀眀  peril" that scared the US in the 1980s when it was thought that Japan would soon ਀琀愀欀攀 漀瘀攀爀⸀ 䄀洀攀爀椀挀愀渀 眀漀爀欀攀爀猀 猀攀攀 樀漀戀猀 ✀✀洀椀最爀愀琀椀渀最✀✀ 昀爀漀洀 琀栀攀 唀渀椀琀攀搀 匀琀愀琀攀猀 琀漀  China because of the investment heading there; and at the same time China has ਀戀攀挀漀洀攀 䄀洀攀爀椀挀愀✀猀 氀愀爀最攀猀琀 挀爀攀搀椀琀漀爀Ⰰ 琀栀攀 漀渀攀 挀漀甀渀琀爀礀 琀栀愀琀 戀礀 戀甀礀椀渀最 䄀洀攀爀椀挀愀渀  bonds, keeps America afloat.

China has both negative sides of the same ਀挀漀椀渀㬀 愀 䐀椀挀欀攀渀猀椀愀渀 瀀椀挀琀甀爀攀 漀昀 愀渀 漀氀搀 匀挀爀漀漀最攀 栀愀爀欀椀渀最 戀愀挀欀 琀漀 琀栀攀 攀愀爀氀礀 礀攀愀爀猀 漀昀  industrial development. It shows one country stealing jobs and leaving common ਀瀀攀漀瀀氀攀 甀渀攀洀瀀氀漀礀攀搀Ⰰ 眀栀椀氀攀 漀渀 琀栀攀 漀琀栀攀爀 猀椀搀攀 漀昀 琀栀攀 挀漀椀渀 椀猀 愀 猀琀椀渀最礀 昀椀渀愀渀挀椀攀爀  bankrolling America's profligate debts and possibly awaiting an occasion to call ਀琀栀攀洀 愀氀氀 椀渀⸀ 㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀䠀漀眀攀瘀攀爀Ⰰ 琀栀攀猀攀 愀爀攀 漀渀氀礀 猀洀愀氀氀 昀攀愀爀猀Ⰰ 渀漀 洀愀琀琀攀爀 栀漀眀 愀挀甀琀攀⸀  These perceptions could easily be addressed and modified. After all, Scrooge had ਀愀 猀漀昀琀 猀椀搀攀Ⰰ 愀猀 愀氀氀 欀椀搀猀 愀爀攀 爀攀洀椀渀搀攀搀 眀栀攀渀 爀攀愀搀椀渀最 琀栀攀 䌀栀愀爀氀攀猀 䐀椀挀欀攀渀猀 挀氀愀猀猀椀挀  A Christmas Carol.

Furthermore, clear minds know that present-day ਀䌀栀椀渀愀 椀猀 渀漀琀 ㄀㤀㠀 猀 䨀愀瀀愀渀㬀 樀漀戀 洀椀最爀愀琀椀漀渀 搀漀攀猀 渀漀琀 猀琀漀瀀 眀椀琀栀 䌀栀椀渀愀Ⰰ 椀琀 椀猀 愀 最氀漀戀愀氀  and complex phenomenon; jobs also go to Mexico, Bangladesh, Africa et cetera. As ਀昀漀爀 挀爀攀搀椀琀Ⰰ 䌀栀椀渀愀 戀愀渀欀爀漀氀氀猀 䄀洀攀爀椀挀愀Ⰰ 戀甀琀 椀琀 椀猀 䄀洀攀爀椀挀愀 琀栀愀琀 猀瀀攀渀搀猀 琀漀漀 洀甀挀栀 愀渀搀  saves too little. Besides, with that large credit in China's hands, the trouble ਀椀猀 渀漀琀 眀椀琀栀 䄀洀攀爀椀挀愀Ⰰ 琀栀攀 搀攀戀琀漀爀Ⰰ 戀甀琀 眀椀琀栀 䌀栀椀渀愀Ⰰ 琀栀攀 挀爀攀搀椀琀漀爀Ⰰ 眀栀漀猀攀 氀攀渀搀椀渀最 椀猀  too substantial to call it in without endangering its own financial and economic ਀戀愀氀愀渀挀攀⸀ 㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀䈀甀琀 愀挀琀甀愀氀氀礀 琀栀攀 猀栀愀搀漀眀 漀昀 匀挀爀漀漀最攀 最爀漀眀猀 椀渀 猀琀愀琀甀爀攀 戀攀挀愀甀猀攀  behind it are four larger issues, to which we now briefly turn:

1. ਀㰀䤀㸀匀椀稀攀 漀昀 琀栀攀 挀漀甀渀琀爀礀 愀渀搀 琀栀攀 瀀漀瀀甀氀愀琀椀漀渀㰀⼀䤀㸀㰀⼀䈀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀䜀攀漀最爀愀瀀栀椀挀愀氀氀礀 䌀栀椀渀愀 椀猀 漀渀攀  of the largest countries in the world and this is combined with the largest ਀瀀漀瀀甀氀愀琀椀漀渀⸀ 䤀渀搀椀愀✀猀 瀀漀瀀甀氀愀琀椀漀渀 椀猀 最攀琀琀椀渀最 挀氀漀猀攀爀Ⰰ 椀琀 眀椀氀氀 漀瘀攀爀琀愀欀攀 䌀栀椀渀愀 椀渀 愀  few decades, and even now the whole Indian subcontinent, the former British ਀䤀渀搀椀愀渀 䔀洀瀀椀爀攀Ⰰ 栀愀猀 漀瘀攀爀 ㄀⸀㔀 戀椀氀氀椀漀渀 椀渀栀愀戀椀琀愀渀琀猀Ⰰ 愀氀爀攀愀搀礀 洀漀爀攀 琀栀愀渀 䌀栀椀渀愀Ⰰ 猀琀椀氀氀  with fewer than 1.4 billion people.

However, India's population is ਀搀椀瘀椀搀攀搀 愀氀漀渀最 洀愀渀礀 氀椀渀攀猀⸀ 吀栀攀爀攀 愀爀攀 爀攀氀椀最椀漀甀猀 搀椀瘀椀搀攀猀 ⠀䠀椀渀搀甀 漀爀 䴀甀猀氀椀洀Ⰰ 琀漀  reckon with only the two largest religions of the subcontinent), ਀攀琀栀渀椀挀ⴀ氀椀渀最甀椀猀琀椀挀 搀椀瘀椀搀攀猀 ⠀䤀渀搀漀 䔀甀爀漀瀀攀愀渀 椀渀 琀栀攀 渀漀爀琀栀 愀渀搀 䐀爀愀瘀椀搀椀愀渀 椀渀 琀栀攀  south), ''national'' divides without counting the dozen official languages that ਀猀瀀氀椀琀 琀栀攀 挀漀甀渀琀爀礀⸀ 䤀渀搀椀愀 琀栀攀渀 爀攀猀甀氀琀猀 椀渀 愀 洀愀稀攀 漀昀 洀愀渀礀 搀椀昀昀攀爀攀渀挀攀猀⸀ 㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀伀渀  the other hand, China looks quite unitary: About 95% of its population calls ਀椀琀猀攀氀昀 ∀䠀愀渀∀Ⰰ 琀栀攀 氀愀爀最攀猀琀 攀琀栀渀椀挀 最爀漀甀瀀椀渀最 漀昀 琀栀攀 挀漀甀渀琀爀礀⸀ 䈀攀猀椀搀攀猀Ⰰ 漀昀 䌀栀椀渀愀✀猀  other 55 ethnicities, only two create real problems to the largely Han state, ਀琀栀攀 吀椀戀攀琀愀渀猀 愀渀搀 琀栀攀 唀椀最栀甀爀猀Ⰰ 眀栀椀挀栀 愀氀琀漀最攀琀栀攀爀 洀愀欀攀 甀瀀 漀渀氀礀 愀戀漀甀琀 ㄀─ 漀昀 琀栀攀  total Chinese population. Chinese, with a single language and culture, are by ਀昀愀爀 琀栀攀 氀愀爀最攀猀琀 挀漀渀挀攀渀琀爀愀琀椀漀渀 漀昀 瀀攀漀瀀氀攀 椀渀 愀 氀椀洀椀琀攀搀 愀爀攀愀 眀栀漀 猀栀愀爀攀 愀 挀漀洀洀漀渀  root, beliefs and destiny. And they are over 20% of the world population - a ਀洀愀猀猀 瘀愀猀琀 愀渀搀 挀漀洀瀀愀挀琀 攀渀漀甀最栀 琀漀 挀漀渀琀爀漀氀 琀栀攀 眀漀爀氀搀⸀ 㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀㸀㈀⸀ 㰀䤀㸀匀瀀攀攀搀 漀昀  development

At the almost 10% a year average growth rate China has ਀洀愀椀渀琀愀椀渀攀搀 漀瘀攀爀 琀栀攀 瀀愀猀琀 琀栀爀攀攀 搀攀挀愀搀攀猀Ⰰ 琀栀攀 攀挀漀渀漀洀礀 搀漀甀戀氀攀猀 攀瘀攀爀礀 攀椀最栀琀 礀攀愀爀猀Ⰰ  and thus it is 16 times the size it was when reforms began in 1978. At this ਀爀愀琀攀Ⰰ 椀渀 ㈀  礀攀愀爀猀 昀爀漀洀 渀漀眀 椀琀 眀椀氀氀 栀愀瘀攀 漀瘀攀爀琀愀欀攀渀 䄀洀攀爀椀挀愀 愀猀 琀栀攀 眀漀爀氀搀✀猀 戀椀最最攀猀琀  economy.

In 1840, at the time of the first Opium war, China's GDP was ਀洀漀爀攀 琀栀愀渀 ㌀ ─ 漀昀 琀栀攀 眀漀爀氀搀Ⰰ 愀渀搀 琀漀 爀攀愀挀栀 琀栀愀琀 瀀爀漀瀀漀爀琀椀漀渀 愀最愀椀渀 椀琀 挀漀甀氀搀 洀愀礀戀攀  take about 60 years, yet to reach a GDP per capita of the average Western ਀挀漀甀渀琀爀礀Ⰰ 䌀栀椀渀愀 眀漀甀氀搀 栀愀瘀攀 琀漀 欀攀攀瀀 最爀漀眀椀渀最 瘀攀爀礀 昀愀猀琀 昀漀爀 洀愀礀戀攀 愀 挀攀渀琀甀爀礀⸀ 

In 2009, China became the world's largest exporter, and Chinese people ਀愀爀攀 漀瀀攀渀椀渀最 戀甀猀椀渀攀猀猀攀猀Ⰰ 爀攀猀琀愀甀爀愀渀琀猀Ⰰ 攀渀琀攀爀瀀爀椀猀攀猀 攀瘀攀爀礀眀栀攀爀攀⸀ 䤀琀 椀猀 愀 眀栀漀氀攀  different ball game compared to the 19th century.

The changes to global ਀瀀漀氀椀琀椀挀猀 愀渀搀 攀挀漀渀漀洀椀挀猀 琀栀愀琀 琀栀攀猀攀 瀀爀漀樀攀挀琀椀漀渀猀 椀洀瀀氀礀 愀爀攀 洀椀渀搀戀漀最最氀椀渀最 愀渀搀 爀攀愀氀氀礀  impossible to compute. The only certainty is that the changes brought by China's ਀爀椀猀攀 眀椀氀氀 搀眀愀爀昀 琀栀漀猀攀 戀爀漀甀最栀琀 愀戀漀甀琀 戀礀 琀栀攀 搀椀猀挀漀瘀攀爀礀 漀昀 䄀洀攀爀椀挀愀 椀渀 ㄀㐀㤀㈀⸀ 䘀漀爀 琀栀攀  West, and particularly for Europe, inevitably it will mark the end of a ਀猀攀氀昀ⴀ挀攀渀琀攀爀攀搀 眀漀爀氀搀ⴀ瘀椀攀眀Ⰰ 猀漀洀攀琀栀椀渀最 愀欀椀渀 琀漀 琀栀攀 攀渀搀 漀昀 琀栀攀 刀漀洀愀渀 䔀洀瀀椀爀攀⸀ 

In a few decades, China could become the economy driving all of Asia, ਀愀渀搀 愀 挀漀渀琀椀渀攀渀琀 琀栀愀琀 椀猀 栀漀洀攀 琀漀 㘀 ─ 漀昀 琀栀攀 眀漀爀氀搀✀猀 瀀漀瀀甀氀愀琀椀漀渀 眀椀氀氀 戀攀 琀栀攀 挀攀渀琀攀爀  of the world. That in itself could spur China's growth to reach GDP per capita ਀漀昀 圀攀猀琀攀爀渀 猀琀愀渀搀愀爀搀猀 愀渀搀 愀 䜀䐀倀 愀猀 戀椀最 愀猀 栀愀氀昀 漀昀 最氀漀戀愀氀 䜀䐀倀⸀ 䄀洀攀爀椀挀愀 愀挀挀漀甀渀琀攀搀  for more than half of global GDP at the end of World War II, when the rest of ਀琀栀攀 眀漀爀氀搀 栀愀搀 戀攀攀渀 氀愀椀搀 眀愀猀琀攀 戀礀 挀漀渀昀氀椀挀琀⸀ 㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀夀攀猀Ⰰ 䌀栀椀渀愀 挀漀甀氀搀 愀挀栀椀攀瘀攀 琀栀攀  goal of concentrating half of global wealth without shooting a bullet. But for ਀渀愀琀椀漀渀猀 琀栀愀琀 瘀椀攀眀 䌀栀椀渀愀 愀猀 渀漀琀 ✀✀漀渀攀 漀昀 甀猀✀✀ ⴀ 琀栀攀礀 挀愀渀 漀渀氀礀 琀爀甀猀琀 琀栀攀 䌀栀椀渀攀猀攀  who say ''we will do nothing rash''. And while, as we saw, China has
China's sing-song language, its script, its lack of religion in a ਀圀攀猀琀攀爀渀 猀攀渀猀攀Ⰰ 椀琀猀 氀愀挀欀 漀昀 愀 猀礀猀琀攀洀愀琀椀挀 瀀愀渀琀栀攀漀渀Ⰰ 攀瘀攀渀 猀椀洀瀀氀礀 椀琀猀 甀猀攀 漀昀  chopsticks (long before knives and forks became standard issue in the West) ਀愀挀挀攀渀琀甀愀琀攀搀 琀栀攀 搀椀昀昀攀爀攀渀挀攀⸀ 䔀瘀攀渀 眀椀琀栀漀甀琀 挀漀渀猀椀搀攀爀椀渀最 琀栀愀琀 䌀栀椀渀愀 昀漀爀 挀攀渀琀甀爀椀攀猀  kept to itself and was not interested in joining the

Still, the civilization and the language carrying it, ਀椀猀 瘀攀爀礀 栀愀爀搀 昀漀爀 昀漀爀攀椀最渀攀爀猀 琀漀 氀攀愀爀渀⸀ 圀攀猀琀攀爀渀 挀栀椀氀搀爀攀渀 渀攀攀搀 愀戀漀甀琀 猀椀砀 搀愀礀猀 琀漀  learn the basics to read and write through the alphabet. For the same task, a ਀䌀栀椀渀攀猀攀 挀栀椀氀搀 琀愀欀攀猀 猀椀砀 礀攀愀爀猀 ⴀ 琀栀攀 眀栀漀氀攀 䌀栀椀渀攀猀攀 瀀爀椀洀愀爀礀 猀挀栀漀漀氀 猀礀猀琀攀洀  basically teaches a child just the basics of reading and writing.

A ਀眀漀爀氀搀 猀漀 搀椀昀昀攀爀攀渀琀 琀栀愀琀 椀猀 戀攀挀漀洀椀渀最 猀漀 椀洀瀀漀爀琀愀渀琀 椀猀 漀戀樀攀挀琀椀瘀攀氀礀 猀挀愀爀礀 昀漀爀 愀渀礀漀渀攀  who is not Chinese.

4. Undemocratic politics
In ਀愀搀搀椀琀椀漀渀 琀漀 愀氀氀 琀栀攀猀攀 搀椀昀昀攀爀攀渀挀攀猀 挀漀洀攀猀 漀渀攀 昀攀愀爀 愀氀眀愀礀猀 瀀甀琀 昀漀爀眀愀爀搀 ⴀ 琀栀攀  different political system, the communist state and party. The fear of a ਀渀漀渀ⴀ搀攀洀漀挀爀愀琀椀挀 猀琀愀琀攀 椀猀 猀攀爀椀漀甀猀Ⰰ 攀猀瀀攀挀椀愀氀氀礀 愀猀 㔀  氀漀渀最 礀攀愀爀猀 漀昀 䌀漀氀搀 圀愀爀 洀漀瘀攀  further into the past for many countries.

Even Japan - although a ਀搀攀洀漀挀爀愀挀礀 昀漀爀 栀愀氀昀 愀 挀攀渀琀甀爀礀Ⰰ 栀愀猀 洀攀攀欀氀礀 琀漀攀搀 䄀洀攀爀椀挀愀渀 昀漀爀攀椀最渀 瀀漀氀椀挀礀 昀漀爀 猀漀洀攀  60 years - still evokes some fear and suspicion, as proven by shelves of novels ਀搀爀愀洀愀琀椀稀椀渀最 琀栀攀 礀攀氀氀漀眀 瀀攀爀椀氀 椀渀 琀栀攀 氀愀琀攀 ㄀㤀㠀 猀⸀ 吀栀愀琀 椀琀 椀猀 琀漀 猀愀礀 琀栀愀琀 攀瘀攀渀 椀昀  China were to totally adopt the American political system, fears would remain ਀愀戀漀甀琀 椀琀猀 搀椀昀昀攀爀攀渀琀 愀渀搀 挀栀愀氀氀攀渀最椀渀最 挀椀瘀椀氀椀稀愀琀椀漀渀Ⰰ 椀琀猀 猀瀀攀攀搀 漀昀 最爀漀眀琀栀 愀渀搀 椀琀猀  size.

In any case, the fear of a different political system is real, for ਀栀椀猀琀漀爀椀挀愀氀 爀攀愀猀漀渀猀⸀ 吀栀攀 圀攀猀琀 昀漀甀最栀琀 挀漀洀洀甀渀椀猀洀 愀渀搀 琀漀琀愀氀椀琀愀爀椀愀渀 椀搀攀漀氀漀最椀攀猀 愀琀  home and abroad for almost a century, and China's political system, no matter ਀栀漀眀 眀攀 挀栀漀漀猀攀 琀漀 氀愀戀攀氀 椀琀Ⰰ 椀猀 漀渀氀礀 洀漀瘀椀渀最 猀氀漀眀氀礀 昀爀漀洀 椀琀猀 琀漀琀愀氀椀琀愀爀椀愀渀 猀琀愀琀攀⸀  Yet political moves can appear so slow and Byzantine as to seem a fiction. ਀㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀匀攀挀漀渀搀氀礀Ⰰ 攀瘀攀渀 琀愀欀椀渀最 琀栀椀猀 洀漀瘀攀洀攀渀琀 椀渀 最漀漀搀 昀愀椀琀栀 愀猀 瀀爀漀漀昀 漀昀 爀攀愀氀  change, the system remains different and is opaque to Western politicians. That ਀椀琀 椀猀 琀漀 猀愀礀Ⰰ 琀栀愀琀 愀猀 䌀栀椀渀愀 洀漀瘀攀猀 琀漀 椀渀琀攀最爀愀琀攀 椀渀 琀栀攀 眀漀爀氀搀 椀琀 爀攀琀愀椀渀猀 昀攀愀琀甀爀攀猀  very different from those of other states.

Its political system, its ਀搀攀挀椀猀椀漀渀ⴀ洀愀欀椀渀最 瀀爀漀挀攀猀猀 椀猀 洀漀爀攀 猀攀挀爀攀琀椀瘀攀Ⰰ 洀甀挀栀 氀攀猀猀 琀爀愀渀猀瀀愀爀攀渀琀 琀栀愀渀 搀攀洀漀挀爀愀琀椀挀  systems in the rest of the developed world. China has moved towards greater ਀琀爀愀渀猀瀀愀爀攀渀挀礀 戀甀琀 椀琀 椀猀 愀 氀漀渀最 眀愀礀 昀爀漀洀 圀攀猀琀攀爀渀 渀漀爀洀猀 眀栀攀爀攀 樀漀甀爀渀愀氀椀猀琀猀 漀爀 攀瘀攀渀  members of the public assist in parliamentary hearings and other important ਀昀甀渀挀琀椀漀渀猀 愀渀搀 攀瘀攀渀琀猀 眀栀攀爀攀 最漀瘀攀爀渀洀攀渀琀 搀攀挀椀猀椀漀渀猀 愀爀攀 猀栀愀瀀攀搀⸀ 䄀氀氀 猀甀挀栀 漀挀挀愀猀椀漀渀猀  in China are carefully restricted.

The very process of the selection of ਀氀攀愀搀攀爀猀Ⰰ 挀爀甀挀椀愀氀 椀渀 愀渀礀 挀漀甀渀琀爀礀Ⰰ 椀猀 挀氀攀愀爀氀礀 瀀爀攀猀攀渀琀攀搀 椀渀 漀琀栀攀爀 搀攀瘀攀氀漀瀀攀搀  countries, but in China remains shut behind closed doors. How was Hu

The lack of ਀琀爀愀渀猀瀀愀爀攀渀挀礀 愀渀搀 琀栀攀 搀椀昀昀攀爀攀渀挀攀 漀昀 琀栀攀 琀眀漀 猀礀猀琀攀洀猀 椀猀 愀 挀愀甀猀攀 漀昀 爀攀愀氀 挀漀渀挀攀爀渀⸀  Chinese intentions in this system are hard to gauge, whereas Western intentions ਀愀爀攀 氀愀爀最攀氀礀 氀愀椀搀 椀渀 琀栀攀 漀瀀攀渀 愀渀搀 愀渀礀 搀攀挀椀猀椀漀渀ⴀ洀愀欀椀渀最 瀀爀漀挀攀猀猀 栀愀猀 琀漀 爀甀渀 愀  gauntlet of open debate, commissions and the press, and so intentions are ਀氀愀爀最攀氀礀 挀氀攀愀爀 氀漀渀最 戀攀昀漀爀攀 琀栀攀礀 愀爀攀 瀀甀琀 椀渀琀漀 瀀爀愀挀琀椀挀攀⸀ 㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀吀栀椀猀 搀椀昀昀攀爀攀渀挀攀 椀猀  both strategic and practical: how do you deal with China when its intentions are ਀渀漀琀 挀氀攀愀爀 愀渀搀 氀漀渀最ⴀ琀攀爀洀 愀最攀渀搀愀猀 挀漀甀氀搀 戀攀 栀椀搀搀攀渀㼀 吀栀椀猀 椀猀 挀爀甀挀椀愀氀 愀渀搀 爀愀渀欀猀 椀渀  importance before pressures for democratization, the need of opposition etc. In ਀昀愀挀琀Ⰰ 椀琀 椀猀 琀栀攀 爀攀愀氀Ⰰ 猀琀爀愀琀攀最椀挀 洀漀琀椀瘀愀琀椀漀渀 戀攀栀椀渀搀 䄀洀攀爀椀挀愀渀 挀愀氀氀猀 昀漀爀  democratization of China. Democratic China, with all its risks and dangers of ਀戀攀椀渀最 琀攀洀瀀琀攀搀 戀礀 渀愀琀椀漀渀愀氀椀猀琀 猀椀爀攀渀猀Ⰰ 眀漀甀氀搀 戀攀 挀氀攀愀爀攀爀 琀漀 最愀甀最攀 愀渀搀 搀攀愀氀 眀椀琀栀  than closed, hidden China.

What can and can't be changed
The ਀氀椀猀琀 漀昀 琀栀椀渀最猀 琀栀愀琀 䈀攀椀樀椀渀最 挀愀渀 挀栀愀渀最攀 愀渀搀 琀栀椀渀最猀 椀琀 挀愀渀✀琀 椀猀 氀漀渀最⸀ 䈀攀椀樀椀渀最 挀愀渀  strive to be more ''Western'' in its civilization, it can go against the ਀漀昀昀椀挀椀愀氀 最爀愀椀渀 愀渀搀 瀀漀瀀甀氀愀爀椀稀攀 琀栀攀 甀猀攀 漀昀 䔀渀最氀椀猀栀 愀渀搀 攀渀挀漀甀爀愀最攀 琀栀攀 氀攀愀爀渀椀渀最 漀昀  foreign languages and culture, but it is foolish to think that China will ever ਀猀琀漀瀀 戀攀椀渀最 ✀✀䌀栀椀渀愀✀✀⸀ 圀攀爀攀 琀栀椀猀 琀漀 栀愀瀀瀀攀渀Ⰰ 琀栀攀 氀漀猀猀 琀漀 眀漀爀氀搀 挀椀瘀椀氀椀稀愀琀椀漀渀 眀漀甀氀搀  be huge. China can learn different cultures but should not forget its own. ਀㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀䌀栀椀渀愀 栀愀猀 琀爀椀攀搀 琀漀 搀漀眀渀猀椀稀攀 椀琀猀攀氀昀Ⰰ 栀漀眀攀瘀攀爀⸀ 吀栀攀 㐀  礀攀愀爀猀 漀昀 戀椀爀琀栀  control culminating in the strict and controversial one-child-policy left the ਀琀漀琀愀氀 䌀栀椀渀攀猀攀 瀀漀瀀甀氀愀琀椀漀渀 㐀   洀椀氀氀椀漀渀 猀栀漀爀琀 漀昀 眀栀愀琀 椀琀 漀琀栀攀爀眀椀猀攀 渀漀眀 戀攀㨀 猀漀愀爀椀渀最  over the 1.7 billion people mark. [4] That sacrifice to accumulation of wealth ਀挀漀渀搀甀挀椀瘀攀 琀漀 最爀漀眀琀栀 栀愀猀 戀攀攀渀 愀 栀甀最攀 漀渀攀⸀ 㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀一漀眀 䈀攀椀樀椀渀最 椀猀 戀愀挀欀瀀攀搀愀氀椀渀最 愀猀  it faces the problem of an aging population long before it has reached full ਀搀攀瘀攀氀漀瀀洀攀渀琀⸀ 䈀甀琀 椀琀 椀猀 椀洀瀀漀猀猀椀戀氀攀 琀漀 琀栀椀渀欀 琀栀愀琀 琀栀攀 䌀栀椀渀攀猀攀 瀀漀瀀甀氀愀琀椀漀渀 挀愀渀  shrink dramatically as if by magic. Conversely, it is possible that it will ਀猀琀椀氀氀 猀氀漀眀氀礀 椀渀挀爀攀愀猀攀 戀攀昀漀爀攀 猀琀愀戀椀氀椀稀椀渀最 愀琀 愀 猀椀稀攀 栀甀最攀 戀礀 愀渀礀 猀琀愀渀搀愀爀搀猀⸀ 

Similarly, it is unlikely to think that China will slow down its speed ਀漀昀 搀攀瘀攀氀漀瀀洀攀渀琀⸀ 䴀椀氀氀椀漀渀猀 漀昀 瀀攀漀瀀氀攀 眀愀渀琀 琀漀 爀攀愀挀栀 琀栀攀 眀攀愀氀琀栀 琀栀愀琀 漀渀氀礀 愀 猀洀愀氀氀  minority of their fellow countrymen have so far reached. Before considering the ਀瀀漀氀椀琀椀挀猀 漀昀 猀漀挀椀愀氀 瀀爀攀猀猀甀爀攀Ⰰ 琀栀攀 搀愀渀最攀爀 漀昀 挀氀愀猀猀 猀琀爀甀最最氀攀 戀攀琀眀攀攀渀 爀椀挀栀 愀渀搀 瀀漀漀爀Ⰰ  and the economic necessity to expand the domestic

From a Chinese perspective, the ਀昀漀甀爀琀栀 昀攀愀爀Ⰰ 琀栀愀琀 漀昀 瀀漀氀椀琀椀挀愀氀 挀栀愀渀最攀Ⰰ 挀愀渀 愀渀搀 洀甀猀琀 戀攀 愀搀搀爀攀猀猀攀搀Ⰰ 椀渀 瀀愀爀琀  because that is necessary in order to assuage the previous three fears. ਀㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀䌀漀渀猀椀搀攀爀攀搀 愀最愀椀渀猀琀 琀栀攀 戀愀挀欀搀爀漀瀀 漀昀 琀栀攀 瀀爀攀猀攀渀琀 琀爀攀渀搀 漀昀 搀攀瘀攀氀漀瀀洀攀渀琀 愀渀搀  expansion in the world, Mao's rule, one that virtually stopped Chinese economic ਀愀渀搀 猀漀挀椀愀氀 最爀漀眀琀栀 昀漀爀 漀瘀攀爀 ㌀  礀攀愀爀猀Ⰰ 眀愀猀 愀 戀氀攀猀猀椀渀最 昀漀爀 琀栀漀猀攀 眀栀漀 眀愀渀琀攀搀 䌀栀椀渀愀  off the economic map.

Mao's policies then can be viewed as the most ਀攀昀昀攀挀琀椀瘀攀 愀渀搀 氀攀猀猀 挀漀猀琀氀礀 洀愀渀渀攀爀 戀礀 眀栀椀挀栀 琀栀攀 圀攀猀琀 挀漀甀氀搀 愀搀搀爀攀猀猀 椀琀猀 洀愀椀渀 昀攀愀爀  of a growing China. From the enemies of China abroad, the real

And ਀昀漀爀 䌀栀椀渀攀猀攀 爀甀氀攀爀猀Ⰰ 愀 爀甀氀攀 漀昀 琀栀甀洀戀 琀漀 爀攀挀漀最渀椀稀攀 瀀漀氀椀挀椀攀猀 搀攀 昀愀挀琀漀 琀爀攀愀挀栀攀爀漀甀猀  to Chinese interests would be to spot people harking back to the methods and ਀琀栀椀渀欀椀渀最 漀昀 漀氀搀 䴀愀漀椀猀琀 搀愀礀猀⸀ 吀栀攀 瀀愀爀愀搀漀砀 椀渀 琀栀椀猀 椀猀 琀栀愀琀 䴀愀漀椀猀琀 椀搀攀愀氀猀 栀愀瘀攀 愀  large and growing market.

The preservation of Maoist ideals underlines ਀琀栀攀 戀漀氀搀攀猀琀 挀栀愀渀最攀 椀渀 琀栀攀 䌀栀椀渀攀猀攀 洀椀渀搀猀攀琀⸀ 䄀猀 䴀愀漀椀猀琀 䌀栀椀渀愀 戀攀氀椀攀瘀攀搀 椀渀 攀砀瀀漀爀琀椀渀最  revolution, and was fraught by continuous and tormenting in-fights,
economic development necessary for China's growth. ਀㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀䌀栀椀渀愀✀猀 瀀愀爀愀洀漀甀渀琀 渀攀挀攀猀猀椀琀礀 琀栀攀爀攀昀漀爀攀 椀猀 渀漀琀 琀漀 愀昀昀椀爀洀 瘀愀氀甀攀猀 漀爀 戀攀氀椀攀昀猀  of whatever color, but to guarantee the conditions for trade and investment in ਀䌀栀椀渀愀 愀渀搀 椀渀 琀栀攀 眀漀爀氀搀⸀ 吀栀攀 猀琀爀攀渀最琀栀 漀昀 琀栀椀猀 戀攀氀椀攀昀 椀猀 琀栀愀琀 椀琀 椀猀 琀漀琀愀氀氀礀  indifferent to any ideology, it is deeply pragmatic and motivated by China's ਀猀攀氀昀 椀渀琀攀爀攀猀琀⸀ 㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀䤀琀猀 眀攀愀欀渀攀猀猀 椀猀 琀栀攀 猀愀洀攀㨀 䌀栀椀渀愀✀猀 猀攀氀昀ⴀ椀渀琀攀爀攀猀琀 挀愀渀  conflict with others' interests and does not provide high moral/philosophical ਀瘀愀氀甀攀猀 琀栀愀琀 栀攀氀瀀 搀椀昀昀攀爀攀渀琀 挀漀甀渀琀爀椀攀猀 琀漀 琀爀愀渀猀挀攀渀搀 琀栀攀椀爀 搀椀昀昀攀爀攀渀挀攀猀 愀渀搀 昀椀渀搀 愀  higher common ground.

Tomorrow: The China 'threat' as a ਀戀氀攀猀猀椀渀最 㰀⼀䤀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䤀㸀㰀䈀㸀一漀琀攀猀㰀⼀䈀㸀㰀⼀䤀㸀 ㄀⸀ 㰀䄀  href="http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90776/90785/7336375.html">China's ਀一愀琀椀漀渀愀氀 䐀攀昀攀渀猀攀 椀渀 ㈀ ㄀ 㰀⼀䄀㸀⸀ 㰀䈀刀㸀㈀⸀ 㰀䄀  href="http://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/notizie/2011-03-30/ordine-riforme-apertura-occidente-212207.shtml?uuid=AaV14sKD">Ordine, ਀爀椀昀漀爀洀攀 攀 愀瀀攀爀琀甀爀愀 愀氀氀✀伀挀挀椀搀攀渀琀攀㨀 椀氀 琀攀漀爀椀挀漀 搀椀 䠀甀 䨀椀渀琀愀漀 挀椀 猀瀀椀攀最愀 氀愀 渀甀漀瘀愀  ideologia della Cina.
3. Bijan, Zheng, China's Peaceful Rise to ਀䜀爀攀愀琀ⴀ倀漀眀攀爀 匀琀愀琀甀猀 㠀㐀 䘀漀爀攀椀最渀 䄀昀昀⸀ ㄀㠀 ⠀㈀  㔀⤀⸀ 㰀䈀刀㸀㐀⸀ 匀攀攀 昀漀爀 椀渀猀琀愀渀挀攀 娀栀愀漀  Baige, vice minister of China’s National Population and Family Planning ਀䌀漀洀洀椀猀猀椀漀渀Ⰰ 愀猀 爀攀瀀漀爀琀攀搀 漀渀 䐀攀挀攀洀戀攀爀 ㄀㄀Ⰰ ㈀  㤀Ⰰ ✀✀䌀栀椀渀攀猀攀 䴀椀渀椀猀琀攀爀 䰀椀渀欀猀  ‘One-Child’ Policy to Emissions Reduction at Climate Conference''
Francesco Sisci is the Asia Editor of La Stampa. His e-mail is ਀昀猀椀猀挀椀䀀最洀愀椀氀⸀挀漀洀 㰀⼀䤀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀㰀䈀刀㸀⠀䌀漀瀀礀爀椀最栀琀 ㈀ ㄀㄀ 䘀爀愀渀挀攀猀挀漀 匀椀猀挀椀⸀⤀ 㰀⼀䈀伀䐀夀㸀㰀⼀䠀吀䴀䰀㸀