A deadly game of double-dealing

October 14, 2006
Page 2 of 2
 

Khan worked safe in the knowledge that the US would not call him to account because Pakistan was helping its covert war to oust Soviet troops from Afghanistan. Today, the same logic buys Pakistan immunity from pressure over its nuclear program and ambiguous relationship with various Islamic militant groups.

Turning a blind eye to proliferators just because it suits some regional power play may be useful in the short term, but it has proven to be a disaster for global security. The Bush Administration's well-known loathing for multilateral institutions, particularly the United Nations and the International Atomic Energy Agency, hasn't helped. The Bush Administration has no intention of asking Congress to ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, but you won't hear a peep about that from Australia.

Such double-dealing is difficult to justify to a sceptical and increasingly well-informed world. When India's high commissioner, Gopalapuram Parthasarathy, was called in for a dressing down by the Foreign Affairs Minister, Alexander Downer, after India's 1998 tests, he pointed out that Australia enjoyed the protection of the US nuclear deterrent but that India was on its own.

Iran could make the same argument, but no one in Canberra or Washington is listening. Could it be that there is more than one rogue state behind this week's nuclear debacle?

In the past decade the urgency that once drove nuclear non-proliferation efforts has evaporated as globalised economies boomed and terrorism dominated the agenda.

The existing nuclear powers have acted as if weapons of mass destruction were their birthright. In doing so, they have broken the legal compact at the heart of the treaty - the undertaking by nuclear haves to move towards elimination of such weapons in return for restraint on the part of nuclear wannabes. One by one, outsiders have lined up to acquire the technology. India, Pakistan, North Korea, probably Iran. Every time another nation dares to detonate, countries such as Australia form a conga line of condemnation, our brazen hypocrisy the perfect counterpoint to their brazen defiance.

In an article published last year in the respected journal Foreign Policy, the former US defence secretary Robert McNamara pointed out that the US maintains 2000 warheads on hair-trigger alert, ready to be launched at 15 minutes' notice, and its 2002 Nuclear Posture Review assumes that a modernised nuclear arsenal consisting of thousands of warheads will remain a core element in US military posture for decades. In other words, America is in breach of its commitment under the treaty to work towards the elimination of all nuclear arsenals.

Describing US nuclear doctrine as "immoral, illegal, militarily unnecessary, and dreadfully dangerous", McNamara wrote, "If the United States continues its current nuclear stance, over time, substantial proliferation of nuclear weapons will almost surely follow. Some, or all, of such nations as Egypt, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Taiwan will very likely initiate nuclear weapons programs, increasing both the risk of use of the weapons and the diversion of weapons and fissile materials into the hands of rogue states or terrorists."

Nor has the US ever endorsed the policy of "no first use". Bizarrely, Pyongyang is willing to make such a pledge, but not Washington.

The danger of another Hiroshima lingers.

Christopher Kremmer is the author of several books about modern Asia. He reported on India and Pakistan's 1998 nuclear tests, and writes and lectures on global security issues.